Imagine the excitement when a fantasy football is snagged backwards hitting 40 yards. Exhilarating fist pumping as you count those precious fantasy points. But in the midst of our celebrations, let’s not overlook the unsung heroes along the offensive line.
Yes, the running back can create his own space to break away from the big point plays, but more often than not, those explosive plays are created from the lanes the guys created up front to do the dirty work.
So, as you prepare for the 2023 fantasy football drafts, don’t ignore the team’s adjustments to the offensive line—or the scheme or coaching changes.
Here are the teams that have improved the most at the start of 2023, be it from free agency, draft or health, and what that might mean for the fantasy prospects of the running backs behind them.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Key additions: J Isaac Somalo, J Nate Herbig, OT Broderick Jones
the proposal: no one
2022 operating block earning rank: 14 (72%)
The Steelers finished 2022 ranked 14th in run block win rate, but the offensive line showed improvement as the season went on. This improvement coincided with Nagy Harris making his move after overcoming a Lisfranc injury that had hampered him early on. For weeks 10 through 17, Harris was the eighth-ranked running back, averaging 15.3 PPG.
Fast-forward to the season, as the Steelers underwent a major change along the O-line, adding former Eagles guard Isaac Somalo and former Jet Nate Herbig through free agency and transfers to take Jones in the first round of the April draft. With QB Kenny Pickett expected to make a jump start in Year 2 and an upgraded unit up front, Harris becomes an attractive option in his current average position as an RB2 midfield draft pick. In 2023, he could easily climb back into the top tier of fantasy running backs, and is a great second-round or third-round draft pick.
Over the past two seasons, Harris ranks fifth with 1,087 rushing yards after first contact and seventh with 1,147 yards before first contact.
Denver Broncos
Key additions: J Ben Powers, OT Mike McGlinchey, C Alex Forsyth, HC Sean Payton
the proposal: J Dalton Reisner, J Bailey Turner
2022 operating block earning rank: 4 (74%)
It wasn’t exactly smooth sailing in Denver last season. The Broncos have had many problems, with line play among them. It was the first time that no Denver offensive lineman had started every game since 1987. However, the Broncos made unit targeting improvements in the off-season, acquiring quality starters in Powers and McGlinchey.
Of course, they also brought in former Saints coach Sean Payton. During Payton’s tenure in New Orleans from 2006 to 2021, the Saints had the ninth-highest block winning rate in the league. With its focus on the O-line play and the running game, the Broncos are poised for a turnaround after ranking 21st in rushing yards per game in 2022.
This is great news for prospects Javonte Williams and Samaje Perine. While Williams’ Week 1 condition is uncertain due to him suffering a season-ending knee injury, Perrin is expected to play an important role this season, regardless. Both would benefit from a renewed focus on the running game and should outpace wilderness expectations.
Kansas City Chiefs
Key additions: RT Jawaan Taylor, LT Donovan Smith, OT Wanya Morris
the proposal: OT Orlando Brown Jr.
2022 operating block earning rank: 3 (74%)
When fantasy directors think of The Chiefs, bitter offense led by Patrick Mahomes is probably the first thing that comes to mind. So it may come as a surprise that Kansas City’s offensive line ranked fifth in block win rate last season. With the addition of two new starting tacklers — former Jaguars RT Jawaan Taylor signed a four-year, $80 million contract, and former Bucs LT Donovan Smith was brought in on a one-year deal — this unit could be even better in 2023.
That’s good news for the running game and Isiah Pacheco, who led the Chiefs with 830 rushing yards as a junior last season and showcased his skills with 197-plus yards in the postseason (and a TD in the Super Bowl). Pacheco ranked 14th in the NFL with 2.91 rushing yards per carry before contact and had the third highest success rate among running backs with at least 150 rushing attempts last season. From Week 10-17 last season, he’s sixth with 569 yards. Coupled with a powerful offense and an improved offensive line, his talents would shine even brighter. Expected to be low-key, the RB2 will likely exceed expectations. Available in rounds 5 and 6, consider picking it up in an early round.
Jerick McKinnon also had a solid season in 2022, playing in all 17 regular season games and accumulating 803 yards from scrimmage while setting career highs in goals (71), receptions (56) and total touchdowns (10). Both running backs promise to make a big impact in 2023 behind a stronger line, making them solid additions to fantasy teams.
Cleveland Browns
Key additions: OT Dawand Jones
the proposal: no one
Run block win rate 2022: 12 (72%)
The Browns dealt with injuries along the offensive line last season and had a somewhat lackluster performance, ranking 13th in block win rate. However, when healthy, and with Pro Bowl guards Joel Bitonio and Wyatt Teller in, Cleveland boasts one of the best O-lines in the league and should see a resurgence in the 2023 fourth round of the draft.
As a team, the Browns ranked fifth in the NFL last season with 146.5 rushing yards per game and 31.3 attempts. Nick Chubb (last year’s RB6) ranks fourth in total rushing yards before first contact (798), showing a strong ability to read blocks and identify open running lanes (16th in success rate). Plus, Chubb ranks third in rushing yards after contact, so he’s also breaking up tackles and fending off defenders (his 88 10-plus rushes over the past two seasons lead the league).
Over the past three seasons, Chubb has averaged 18.2 touches, 102.7 total yards and 16.3 fantasy points per game. Our predictions for the season put him in the top ten among running backs. Thanks to a healthy offensive line, Chubb has the potential to crack the top five. He was RB4 through Weeks 1-12, and slipped to RB23 when Deshaun Watson returned. As Watson becomes more acclimated, the Browns’ offense should be more effective. Additionally, Chubb could see increased targets with the departures of Karim Hunt and Duke Johnson. Feel free to draft it near the end of the first round or at the top of the second round.
Meanwhile, fantasy directors looking for a lottery ticket should keep an eye on Jerome Ford’s return for a second year. If Chubb misses time, the former Cincinnati Bearcats running back, who ran for 1,319 yards and 19 TDs on 215 rushing attempts in 2021, has displayed a versatile skill set that translates well to the NFL.
Green Bay Packers
Key additions: no one
the proposal: QB Aaron Rodgers
2022 operating block earning rank: 8 (72%)
Sometimes not taking steps is the biggest step. Green Bay has made significant investments to bolster its offensive line in recent years, and it has paid off with his streak remaining intact. Last season, Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon combined for nearly 1,900 rushing yards behind a unit that ranked eighth in block win rate. Jones ranked seventh in rushing runs before first contact (704) and had the fifth highest success rate among rushing linebackers with at least 150 rushing attempts last season.
With senior year starter Jordan Love taking over at quarterback after sitting behind future Hall of Famer Rodgers, I expect the Packers will focus more on the running game. (The Packers invested in two tight ends and two receivers in the first seven picks of the April draft.)
The fantasy-friendly timeline benefits Jones and Dillon, too. Green Bay six games against NFC North opponents. Based on their unofficial changes, the Vikings, Bears and Lions are not top 20 defensemen. There are also four games against the NFC South, another division without defenses threatening. The Packers’ offensive line should have plenty of success against these opponents.
Jones is expected to end up as a top 10 fantasy slump. If you prioritized wide receivers early in your draft, you shouldn’t lose sight of him. Jones and Dillon draft for 430 touches combined, making them excellent value picks in fantasy football drafts at current recruiting positions.
Atlanta Falcons
Key additions: J. Matthew Bergeron
the proposal: Elijah Wilkinson
2022 operating block earning rank: 25 (71%)
Atlanta struggled badly in the passing game last season, but that certainly didn’t carry over into the running game. The Falcons finished second in the league with 32.9 rushing attempts per game and third in rushing yards per contest with 159.9 attempts. Despite ranking 26th in run block win rate in 2022, this is a solid offensive line that returns four starters and adds promising rookie Matthew Bergeron (Round 2) at guard to bolster the unit in Arthur Smith’s heavyweight scheme.
The biggest boost, however, will come from Bijan Robinson, who was picked up by the Falcons with the eighth overall pick in the April draft. Having started his stellar career at Texas, amassing 3,410 rushing yards and 41 total touchdowns, the former Longhorn should have no problem putting up big numbers behind that line. He is already drafted as a fantasy star and will have a great workload. Feel free to use Robinson’s first-round pick, as he’s one of the most talented dual-threat defensemen since LaDanian Tomlinson. Look to the rookie seasons of Ezekiel Elliott and Saquon Barkley to get a glimpse of Robinson’s potential. Elliott finished as RB2 in 2016 and Barkley as RB1 in 2018, averaging nearly 23 touches per game.
And don’t lose sight of Tyler Allgeier in the later rounds of fantasy drafts. He could prove to be a hidden gem should Robinson be injured, after he rushed for a Falcons rookie record 1,035 yards in 2022.