Late last month, we took a look at the performance of every frontline lineup posted by the Washington Capitals over the course of the 2022-23 season. Yesterday we started to improve the analysis by starting to look at the performance of the individual players’ line, starting with captain Alex Ovechkin’s line-ups. Today we take a look at the performance of each line group it has been published with Evgeny Kuznetsov.
As we begin to dig further into what worked and what didn’t work for the Capitals in the 2022-23 season, in order to better understand the Capitals’ needs this off-season, we can start by evaluating all of the line combinations deployed for each individual player and the resulting overall performance of each line combination. This is amazing.
The following chart plots every forward line kit published with Evgeny Kuznetsov for the 2022-23 season (sans lines that included Marcus Johansson, Lars Eller and Garnett Hathaway). The graph includes the total time each line was on the ice (TOI), percentage of offensive zone encounters each line was on the ice for (OZFO%), expected goal difference (xGF – xGA) and expected goals in percentage (xGF%) spread in five out of five. [Click to enlarge].
[The statistics used in this post are courtesy of Natural Stat Trick and the NoVa Caps Advanced Analytics Model (NCAAM). If you’d like to learn more about the statistical terms used in this post, please check out our NHL Analytics Glossary]
The thin horizontal red line above bifurcates the positive and negative predicted targets for the percentages of all line combinations.
What worked
the Milan Kuznetsov Ver The line was Kuznetsov’s best line combination last season. As we’ve seen with many of Sonny Milano’s lines, nowhere is his positive influence more apparent than in his play with Kuznetsov.
The same can be said about Connor Cherrywho has improved the performance of several Capitals line combinations this season. Craig Smith It also had a positive effect on Kuznetsov’s lines.
What didn’t work
Ultimately, Kuznetsov finished with a personal goals predicted rate of 42.46%, the worst of his career, and the worst of all regular forwards for the 2022-23 season.
Kuznetsov, who scored 24 goals and 78 points in 79 games played last season, scored just 12 and 55, respectively, in 81 games in 2022-23. Although he didn’t like his performance being evaluated, the 2010 first-round pick offered an assessment of his low scoring.
“I have nothing to comment on at this time, sorry,” Kuznetsov replied during a press on the day of the crash. “I still need more time… I fought to the end, trying to get healthy, and all that stuff. But there wasn’t, so I sat and thought why all this was happening, but I’m sure I’ll come back stronger for the year,” Kuznetsov said. next”.
“I feel like last year there were a few breakups, and this year only two, so I think some of those high stakes shots I used to have this year. There’s a lot of time to reflect and refocus but I’m sure I’ll find a solution.”
In his press conference at the end of the season, Capitals general manager Brian MacLellan expressed his displeasure with Kuznetsov’s game this season.
“Maybe disappointed in it. I guess it wasn’t as good as last year. “I loved his season last year, he played really well,” McClellan said. “For whatever reason, he just didn’t quite find his game. I mean there were long periods where I thought he played well, but overall I think he underperformed the season he played last year.”
The 30-year-old forward, who spent his 10-season career in Washington, has once again found himself in the unofficial trade rumor mill. He was not asked about this in his exit interview, though Kuznetsov described his feelings surrounding the team’s failure to play in the summer as “very low”.
Context and caveats
It’s hard to say how much the Capitals’ injuries and squad differences have affected Kuznetsov’s play this season. We’ve seen him very inconsistent through most of his career in Washington, something that was well known by the Capitals on the day of his draft. Just to hear Bob McKenzie’s survey report on Kuznetsov from the day of his draft in 2010. It pretty much sums up Kuznetsov’s report today.
Capitals knew of the inconsistencies in 2010, so expecting anything different is probably not a fair expectation for Kuznetsov. And he is who he is. Capitals got a known amount. The question now is, do they want to continue the inconsistent performance.
Next we’ll look at the performance of TJ Oshie’s line deployments.
Written by John Sorensen