It seems like just yesterday we were debating whether Nylander’s $6.9 million contract was an overpayment. The first year he was back in the lineup mid-season it looked a little rough, but in the end, the $6.9 million cap was about as cool as you’d expect, even if it meant he cost the Leafs more. Than David Pasternak was costing the Bruins.
Here we are now, with just a year left on Nylander’s deal before he reaches free agency and there is a need to come to terms with the cost of Nylander and whether that cost can fit the Leafs position to move forward with his deal will coincide with not only Auston Matthews but come at a time when they might need In it the Leafs want to replace TJ Brodie and hopefully deal with pay increases for Nick Robertson and Timothy Lillegren because they’ve been absolutely amazing.
Immediately after that there will be contracts for Mitch Marner and John Tavares to settle. I’m going to go out on a limb and say John Tavares won’t cost $11 million in his next deal, but his cut is unlikely to offset the increases of Marner, Matthews, and Neylander enough to keep the band together at the same price.
So let’s look at the obvious question first, which is whether or not it’s easier to view Nylander as an outsider before starting the process. The Leafs are looking to make big changes this summer, whether or not it was the right decision. In the midst of these changes, they could break off potentially contentious contract negotiations and transfer Nylander ahead of the draft. There are definitely some similarities between Timo Meier’s idea of trading a Nylander and teams like the Blackhawks and Red Wings holding minor first-round picks in the middle of the first round. Nylander already owns a 10-team no-trade roster heading into the final year of his contract, but that won’t start until July 1.
Now that I’ve admitted to option trading, I want to take it back to being a bad idea, at least in theory. There are a few players in the league who carry the puck across the no-man’s-land and into the offensive zone as well as Nylander. This is definitely his calling card on the Leafs and makes up for the lack of defensive zone contributions. Nylander becomes the secondary goal-scoring option for Matthews and leads the net better than most. Mesh has become all his abilities he considers completely indifferent to the pressures of playing in the Toronto market, a proven leader among Swedish players on the roster, an organizer of good times away from the circuit, and it is clear to see that there will be a loss of intangible locker room pieces that go along with big acquisition numbers and high goal totals. Keeping Nylander makes sense, as long as the Leafs think they can afford him. This is what we will look at next.
the cost
When looking at Auston Matthews’ next contract with the Leafs, the term was an important consideration. That doesn’t seem likely with Nylander. He got a six-year deal last time because the goal was to get him to release an agency as quickly as possible. The Leafs bought as many as they could but there it is. There’s no reason to think he wouldn’t want an eight-year deal.
There are a number of favorable comparisons that will keep William Neilan’s deal in check. The alarming talk on sports radio of Nylander becoming a $10 million-plus player is something that could be thrown out the window because Pastrnak, Panarin, Marner and (LOL) Huberdeau are the only wingers set to earn that next season. Nylander’s agent negotiated $9.75 million for Johnny Goudreau last summer with the belief that money was left on the table from other organizations, and that may be the best metric even if players like Tkachuks, Kaprizov and Laine have to point to a number lower than that. .
In Nylander’s last deal, his contract ate up 8.76% of the available cap space. Assuming the cap rises to $83.5 million for next season, maintaining the same number means Nylander will earn about $7.5 million. Maybe you can scratch this idea. Using Patrik Laine as a recent example, he earned 10.55% of the salary cap, and the following season, that’s the equivalent of $8.8 million for William Nylander. What a beautiful vanity number. The vanity Willy would likely trade for more actual money, and since the year Nylander’s contract actually takes effect some are projecting a salary cap of $86.5 million, the potential Nylander AAV will be $9.1 million.
There is, too Hockey evolution Project Nylander contract to look at and compare his 2021-22 production On the $83.5 million cap, Nylander will acquire 9.6 million AAV in a 7-year deal. And that was before Nylander’s career year this season. The next release could bring the case up to $10 million.
how do you play
In many ways, the fact that Nylander’s contract came before Marner’s contract is both a mixed blessing. If the goal is to keep the band together, then Nylander’s contract is likely to be the reasonable one and give Toronto the opportunity to restart it for at least one additional season and have Nylander’s safety net under contract while determining whether or not Marner’s contract makes reasonable demands.
On the other hand, Nylander at $6.9 million with one year remaining on his contract might easily be the Leafs core’s most portable asset if they want to turn things around. They can move forward quickly this summer, but in doing so they give a lot of leverage to the Leafs’ other key players in their upcoming negotiations as well.
The other things to keep in mind with Nylander is that he’s been pretty healthy his entire career. His numbers have been on an upward trajectory over the past two seasons. And if you suppose he might have his father’s stamina, he could manage a productive career into his late thirties. Betting on Nylander seems like a safe bet. If there is a path to a long-term deal with AAV for less than $10 million, the Leafs would be wise to act on it.