RENTON, WA — The lower the first-round standings, it is usually more difficult for teams and analysts to know which players will be available in a given venue. Such was the reality for the Seattle Seahawks, who in the 1920s routinely selected 13 draft picks under general manager John Schneider and coach Pete Carroll.
So logically, they should have a much better-than-usual feel for what their options will look like once they’re on the clock at #5 overall when the 2023 NFL Draft begins Thursday (8 p.m. ET on ESPN, ABC, and the ESPN App).
“You think so, right?” Schneider said Wednesday. “I don’t feel like it, no.”
While Alabama quarterback Bryce Young Widely expected to be the Carolina Panthers’ first overall pick, skepticism appears to be growing over whether the Houston Texans will pick Ohio State QB CJ Stroud In No. 2. Addressing Georgia Galen Carter is a wild card due to his concerns off the field, there is also the possibility that a team in need trades a quarterback up to the #3 number 3 to the Arizona Cardinals, potentially leaving Carter and/or an Alabama linebacker Will Anderson Jr. Available in Seattle.
“There are just too many variables out there,” Schneider said. “So many different scenarios. There are so many different ways we can go.”
This is absolutely certain: the Seahawks desperately need more help up front on defense both in terms of teammates and net size. And while it’s entirely possible for them to take a quarterback with their first pick in the first round, hiring a game-breaking defender would be the best way to start filling that void.
With that in mind, here’s a look at what the top three defensive picks would be for the fifth:
Carter is exactly what the Seahawks have been trying to find for years: an inside linebacker who can wreak havoc on the run and pass. That’s why they drafted Malik McDowell in the second round in 2017 even though they had misgivings about his efforts, why they traded Sheldon Richardson late that summer after McDowell was seriously injured in an ATV accident, and why they planned to take Dexter Lawrence with them. A first rounder in 2019 if it had lasted a few picks longer.
And that’s why they can take Carter in, despite all the questions about his maturity and decision-making. He pleaded no contest to Georiga last month on charges of misdemeanor reckless driving and racing related to a fatal crash in January. He was sentenced to 12 months probation, a $1,000 fine and 80 hours of community service and will attend a state-approved defensive driving course. Then he weighed 323 pounds on his pro day—nine pounds heavier than he was in the combine—and didn’t complete his position drills. According to ESPN draft analyst Todd Macchie, Carter’s level of effort in practice also left something to be desired.
The Seahawks brought Carter on a 30 visit two weeks ago, giving them one-on-one time to assess him as a person. The debacle of picking McDowell wouldn’t make them feel any easier about Carter – especially since they would spend a more valuable option – but McShea considers him the most dominant defender in the draft and believes the reward outweighs the risk.
“He has a unique combination of strength and athleticism,” said McShay. “He dominates everyone he’s in. I’ve heard people say the engine runs hot and cold. I just don’t see it as much. If you’re playing that many SEC shots and humidity and all that, you might not go 100% on every game. But My God, this guy makes an effort on the court, despite all the negative stories about his habits in practice.”
Anderson may have the highest floor of the three thanks to her combination of skill, scale and production. He recorded 34.5 sacks and 62 tackles for loss over his three seasons at Alabama, and won SEC Defensive Player of the Year honors in each of his last two seasons.
At 6-foot-3 ½ and 253 pounds, Anderson has the build the Seahawks are looking for with their 3-4 outside linebackers, and he’s shown the ability to slide into coverage while playing the same position for the Crimson Tide. And while the Seahawks may not have as big a hole as they do on the inside of their D line, they still need someone to kick in early touchdowns against Uchenna Nwosu, where Darrell Taylor and Boye Mafe seem to be a better fit. for rotational roles.
The question for Seattle is whether Anderson is still up there in the top five. He is widely expected to go to the Cardinals in third place. First round deals between divisional competitors aren’t as uncommon as you might think, but they don’t usually happen in the top ten. And if the Cardinals are looking to run back, they may find a better offer from a team that wants to make a bigger jump for the quarterback.
Wilson has had solid productions over the past two seasons after moving from Texas A&M, posting seven sacks in 2021 and matching that total in 10 games last year before a foot injury ended his season early. But he is widely expected to be taken inside the top 10 due to his impressive height at 6-6 and arms that measure nearly 36 inches in length.
Wilson and Carter were the two most popular defensemen sent to Seattle in ESPN mock drafts, though it’s fair to wonder how well Wilson fit into their scheme. At 271 pounds, he’s lighter than the defensemen they played last season in their transition to 3-4, which raises the question of his ability to corner against running backs in early downs. He’s larger than a typical outside linebacker and may not be as flexible when running back into coverage, which Nwosu (6-2, 251) did nearly five times per game last season.
Opinions differ on how important all this really is. One of the arguments that led Seattle to take Wilson despite what may have been a complete inappropriateness is that a good coaching staff should be able to get him to work with good players no matter what the scheme is. Also, NFL defenses have spent at least 60% more shots in a nickel, as edge players rush and the OLB/DE distinction no longer matters.