There are a few things you should always keep in mind when trying to figure out what the Dallas Cowboys are really up to. One of the most important is a rule that we should all apply throughout our lives, but that is particularly useful for them: Don’t listen to what they say, watch what they do.
We’ve had many examples of that over the years, but few rise to the level of the comments earlier this offseason from Jerry Jones where he used the term “all in.” That turned out to be of no more substance than a morning mist on a hot summer’s day. To an extent, that was unintentional. Listening to or reading Jerry’s comments closely made it pretty clear he was just talking about some key contract negotiations with players like Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb. It was mostly just a typical convoluted statement from him. But many in the media and the fan base locked in on those two words. Excitement blossomed.
Those budding hopes should be thoroughly crushed by now. Stephen Jones threw several orange coolers full of cold water on them, and his father has tried to clarify, although that was with more of his typical ramblings and at no time an admission he may have misspoke. Words are one thing, but now we are seeing signs of how the team is really approaching 2024.
Be warned, this is not a happy tale.
Lets start with how the one part of “all in” that did seem to have some reality to it is going. RJ Ochoa put together some of the most pertinent things that are coming out of the team via the media. While it appears that a long-term deal with Lamb is in the offing, a good thing, doing the same with Dak Prescott is looking less probable. That feels surprising. One of the basic rules of building a roster in the NFL is that when you have your franchise quarterback, you pay what you have to in order to retain his talent. But the Cowboys (cough) Stephen Jones (cough) have long had a strong focus on cap considerations, and those are significant with Prescott. No matter what they do, he is going to eat up a ton of space. The only thing the team can do is decide when to absorb the cost.
An extension would alleviate some of those, exceeding $26 million according to Over the Cap, However, that would come with a likely market setting contract for Prescott. Dallas does not like to do that. Further, they do not do a good job with negotiations. They think they do, but time and again we have seen them try to play hardball and delay getting a deal done. In the end, they seem to always pay more than they could have if they had gotten things done earlier. Admittedly that is not all on the management. Players and their agents are well aware of that trend. It is plenty of justification for going head-to-head with ownership and letting things drag out as the price tag just escalates.
Jerry Jones himself has stated that his “all in” remark is not a sign they are focused on an extension for their quarterback when asked if they could be considering not doing so.
“We don’t need to, but we can if everybody wants to solve it,” Jones said. “You can get in and get on the same page and see if you can come to an agreement. If you can’t, what we have in place works. And so obviously, if you do it one way, you’ll be working through some of the other areas on the team in a different way, but you can’t really plan on that until you see when you’re there.”
“Absolutely,” he said when directly asked if he can be all-in without an extension. “You just have to adjust where you’re going and how you’re going all-in.”
Jerry’s definition of “all in” seems to diverge widely from what fans and the media think it means. With the inability to put a tag on Prescott, we may well see the team risk him going into free agency after this season. If he plays well this year, there is a real possibility there will be quarterback-hungry teams willing to bid for his services, especially if they have a lot of cap space to burn. The Cowboys loathe that and could very well decide to just move on. It seems unwise, but that is in our opinion. Our opinion doesn’t matter.
It is also clear that only a few contracts are priorities for the management. Most of us were a bit stunned by the sudden reports that Tyron Smith is unlikely to be re-signed. This becomes potentially the most important issue on the roster. Matt Waletzko seems at best a risk as his replacement. Reportedly the team was willing to bring Smith back, but they were not able to reach an agreement. The gap between the two sides was probably significant. Now they may be looking in the first round for the next LT, or for a guard to backfill behind Tyler Smith if he should be moved to tackle. Further complicating matters, it also appears that Tyler Biadasz is not returning. While the depth there is less concerning, with Brock Hoffman looking like the likely new starter, this still means that they will probably have to roll with two new starters on the offensive line. And the reason is the unwillingness to meet the cost of bringing the two linemen back. You may now assume your shocked face.
That, of course, directly impacts the quarterback and the entire offensive performance. The team appears to be making a calculation that moving on from Smith and Biadasz has more upside, which is understandable, especially given Smith’s injury history. Still, it is going to be a big challenge for Mike McCarthy and the offensive staff, who are all coaching for a possible future with the team as their contracts are ending this year.
Now we can also add in that free agency is probably going to be more of the same as in recent years. They will not be looking to spend on big names, instead waiting to see how things shake out in the first wave or two before they try to sign anyone from outside the organization. This is where the biggest disappointment comes for those who read too much into Jerry’s original comments. Hope flared that they were finally going to break this trend. You can toss flowers onto the grave of that one. They are still going to be limited by their own tight cap situation, compounded by the previously mentioned cautious approach to managing it. Given that linebacker and other positions are also in need of help, plus the limited draft capital this year, and it is going to be hard to address all the needs they face with good players. This is clearly a place where they are anything but “all in.”
Another way to look at the approach of the Cowboys is that they tend to look too far ahead, rather than focusing on winning now, which is what really matters. The great hunger of fans for them to finally get past the long playoff drought was a strong impetus for those fans to seize on what turned out to be little more than an offhand and somewhat clumsy choice of words. If there were other words he should have used, the most accurate would have been “business as usual.”