In this weekly series for Arrowhead Pride, I’ll ask one big question about the Kansas City Chiefs’ season. For the bye week, I revisited 5 of my preseason questions — and then 5 more of them.
Now, let’s turn to an issue plaguing the team — and being discussed everywhere.
Can the Chiefs overcome their second-half offensive issues?
One of my favorite things to do after a Chiefs game is to scroll X and look for interesting stats. During a game, I prefer to watch the game without looking at different opinions or stat so I can absorb the ongoing game. I’ve always found that looking after games for stats gives me the best information about the team I need.
After Monday night’s loss vs. the defending NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles, there were two stats I saw that stuck with me:
Mind-blowing: No team in the NFL is scoring fewer points per game in the second half this season than the Kansas City Chiefs.
The #Chiefs are averaging 5.3 points per game in the second half through 10 games.
Every other NFL team has more. pic.twitter.com/QoRlMQ765Z
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) November 21, 2023
Fewest 2nd half points scored in 1st 10 games of season in last 10 years:
2019 Dolphins 37
2016 Browns 51
2023 Chiefs 53— Josh Dubow (@JoshDubowAP) November 21, 2023
Through 10 weeks, the Chiefs have scored 53 total second-half points. In the past 10 years, only two teams have scored fewer points after halftime. Those teams would combine to have a 6-26 record. The Chiefs are currently 7-3.
It’s almost unfathomable to see the Chiefs have this many issues scoring in the second half, but they haven’t scored in the second half of a game since they beat the Chargers in Week 7. For three straight games, the offense has completely stalled after halftime, not being able to put together anything after solid first halves.
Now, why is this happening? Well, unfortunately, I don’t think there’s one concrete reason. In each game, separate issues came into effect.
However, I think there are three main reasons this keeps happening:
Turnovers
This is the easiest thing to look at. In the last three games, the Chiefs have committed three turnovers in the second halves and two missed fourth-down conversions. Five possessions have resulted in zero points because of turnovers. Possessing the ball has been a major problem for the Chiefs in general; they are currently tied for third-worst in offensive giveaways this season. When your offense is struggling to create easy yards already, you can’t afford to give possessions to other teams, but the Chiefs struggling to take care of the football.
Run game woes
In the last three games, the Chiefs have run 18 designed runs for 72 yards with a 39% success rate – which would rank around league average. Within those 18 runs was a 15-yard carry. If you eliminate that one play, the Chiefs’ rushing offense has otherwise produced 57 yards on 17 carries with a 35% success rate, which would rank 25th in the NFL.
The Chiefs’ run game has fallen apart in the second halves of games. Whether it’s bad blocking, playcalls or running back play, they have not been able to get any drives going through the ground. Last year, that was an integral part of the team. The Chiefs beat the Philadelphia Eagles in the Super Bowl by getting heavy and running the football. They did the same thing at the Chargers in 2022.
This year, they can’t seem to tap into that, mainly abandoning the run game due to its lack of success.
Wide receiver problems
Running the ball and turnovers have been issues for this team all year, but they certainly aren’t as glaring as the Chiefs continued issues at wide receiver. In the last three games, the Chiefs wide receivers have combined for 33 targets, 15 catches, 113 yards and zero touchdowns. Their success rate throwing to wide receivers is currently 27% in the second half of these games. The lowest passing success rate in the NFL is the New York Jets at 37%.
It’s rather simple: the Chiefs are just bad at wide receiver. No savior is coming in to help the Chiefs. The trade deadline has passed. The free-agent market offers no immediate upgrades. The Chiefs gambled on these wide receivers to be good enough to keep their passing game hyper-efficient, but they’ve been mistaken to do so.
Is this solvable?
All of this ultimately leads us back to the original question I asked:
Can the Chiefs overcome this? Are these second-half offensive issues a solvable issue or a flaw about the team as it is currently constructed?
I want to believe this is a fluke. There’s no way an offense led by Mahomes and Reid can continue to be this poor after halftime. The turnovers might regress back into the Chiefs’ favor. The run game showed major signs of life against the Eagles in the first half, which was the first time that’s happened since the New York Jets game in Week 4. The second halves have been problems, but I do feel more optimistic the Chiefs figure out the running game at some point.
However, there are just real structural problems with this offense.
The wide receivers are going to continue to be an issue. We have enough evidence of guys being unable to produce to say otherwise. As the weeks continue, Mahomes’ trust in Skyy Moore and Marquez Valdes-Scantling is waning. Kadarius Toney has had moments this year where his snaps are diminished. The wide receivers are a roster construction issue that the front office chose to have, and they’re currently paying the price for that.
The Chiefs can’t win the Super Bowl being this bad in second halves offensively. You can’t average 5.3 points after halftime — let alone not put up any points — and be expected to win a Super Bowl. That might work against lower-level teams, but at the highest levels, you have to play complementary football in some capacity.
So, it’s pretty simple. Can the Chiefs find solutions in these games? This team might lack the force it had offensively last year, but that doesn’t mean it has to be this bad. Can the Chiefs find a formula for running the football in the second halves? Do they find ways to minimize the impact of the wide receivers, using their tight ends and running backs more in the passing game? Can Reid find solutions to give Mahomes more help? Will Mahomes trust any wide receiver?
The Chiefs are currently in an offensive crisis. If they want to win in the playoffs, they have to overcome that crisis. There isn’t anyone else coming in to fix this but themselves. The bye week is gone. They will either hunker down and find some formula in the second half of these games or have their season end early in January.