As the Kansas City Chiefs pick near the end NFL DraftIn the first round of every season, a team is always out for high-profile prospects for each draft.
This does not mean that good players cannot be found in this range. But most NFL teams have players who are at similar levels; After you get past your first 20 picks, there isn’t much difference between late first-round picks and most second-round picks. From the team’s point of view, there is not much value at the end of the first round.
Because of this, you’ll often hear suggestions that the correct move is to be out in the first round in exchange for more picks – particularly those on Day 2. This way, opposing teams that pick late in the first round can get more surplus value.
Besides… the more selections there are, the more likely you are to get good players.
Trading out of the first round
But the history of the NFL suggests that most teams don’t really operate that way. In fact, it is fairly uncommon for teams to trade their first-round picks.
Since the 2011 NFL Draft, there have been 15 such deals—just 5.3% of the total 283 first-round draft picks—and only 1.25 deals each year.
year (buck) |
difference | given snapshots | acquired |
2011 (28) |
Patriots for saints |
2011 2nd (56), 2012 first (27) |
RB Mark Ingram |
2012 (29) |
crows to the Vikings |
2012 2nd (35), 2012 IV (98) |
S Harrison Smith |
2012 (31) |
Bronco for hackers |
2012 2nd (36), 2012 IV (101) |
RB Doug Martin, 2012 IV (126) |
2013 (29) |
Patriots to the Vikings |
2013 2nd (52), 2013 3rd (83), 2013 IV (102), 2013 seventh (229) |
WR Cordarrell Patterson |
2014 (32) |
Seahawks to the Vikings |
2014 2nd (40), 2014 IV (108) |
QB Teddy Bridgewater |
2016 (28) |
heads to the 49ers |
2016 2nd (37), 2016 IV (105), 2016 sixth (178) |
Joshua Garnett, 2016 seventh (249) |
2017 (29) |
Packers for browns |
2017 2nd (33), Fourth 2017 (108) |
David Nkogo Hill |
2017 (31) |
Seahawks to the 49ers |
2017 2nd (34), Fourth 2017 (111) |
Robin Foster |
2018 (32) |
the Eagles to crows |
2018 2nd (52), 2018 IV (125), 2019 2nd (54) |
QB Lamar Jackson, 2018 Fourth (132) |
2019 (26) |
colts for leaders |
2019 2nd (46), 2020 2nd (34) |
De Montes sweat |
2019 (30) |
Seahawks for giants |
2019 2nd (37), 2019 IV (132), 2019 Fourth (142) |
CB Dendre Baker |
2019 (31) |
rams to the hawks |
2019 2nd (45), 2019 3rd (79) |
T Caleb McGarry, 2019 sixth (203) |
2020 (23) |
Patriots for chargers |
2020 2nd (37), 2020 3rd (71) |
LB Kenneth Murray |
2022 (26) |
titans for planes |
2022 2nd (35), 2022 3rd (69), 2022 Fourth (153) |
DI Jermaine Johnson III, 2022 3rd (101) |
2022 (27) |
hacker for jaguar |
2022 2nd (33), 2022 Fourth (106), 2022 sixth (180) |
LB Devin Lloyd |
We see here that one of the common notions about these trades — that teams will trade back in the first round for quarterbacks who will have a fifth-year contract option — doesn’t happen very often; It has only happened twice in the last 12 years.
With running backs being shorter than racks, is this a position that might make sense for teams to get a fifth-year option? This would allow teams to keep the player for another year inexpensively under a rookie contract. However, the last time this happened was in 2012, when it was Tampa Bay Buccaneers He was traded to running back Doug Martin.
Over these 12 seasons, there isn’t a lot of style. There were three linebacker swaps, but only one (or two) for any other position. Teams seem to be making these decisions on a case-by-case basis – rather than pursuing fifth-year options for specific positions.
In fact, it appears that teams do not value fifth-year options as much as is usually believed.
Options for the fifth year 2011-2018
year | anthology | new deal | fifth year | released |
2011 | 32 | 16 | 3 | 13 |
2012 | 32 | 9 | 9 | 14 |
2013 | 32 | 11 | 7 | 14 |
2014 | 32 | 9 | 11 | 12 |
2015 | 32 | 5 | 14 | 13 |
2016 | 31 | 11 | 4 | 16 |
2017 | 32 | 11 | 6 | 15 |
2018 | 32 | 11 | 11 | 10 |
the total | 255 | 83 | 65 | 107 |
PCT | 100% | 32.5% | 25.5% | 42.0% |
During the eight-year period ending in 2018, only 65 of the 255 first-round players — just one in four — actually played the fifth year on their rookie contracts.
About one in three landed brand new deals before their fifth season even started (the Chiefs’ starting quarterback was Patrick Mahomes from the class of 2017).
But more than two out of five first-round picks didn’t make it to the fifth season. Some did not exercise their options in the fifth year. some (ex New York Giants Corner Buck Deandre Baker) even earlier. Baker got another chance in Kansas City, but other players like him never got to play again. It’s another reminder that even first-round picks aren’t sure of things in the NFL.
If you just look at picks from the 21st to the 32nd overall, the differences are even more stark.
Fifth-year options (21-32), 2011-2018
year | anthology | new deal | fifth year | released |
2011 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
2012 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
2013 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 |
2014 | 12 | 0 | 7 | 5 |
2015 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
2016 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
2017 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
2018 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 |
the total | 95 | 20 | 25 | 50 |
PCT | 100% | 21.1% | 26.3% | 52.6% |
Of the 95 first-round draft picks in this range, roughly the same proportion—about one in four—fifth-year picks have been played. But even fewer — just one in five — landed new contracts, while more than half never made it to fifth seasons.
This landscape will change. It used to be that teams could exercise a fifth-year option and still be able to drop a player after their fourth season — but starting with the 2020 collective bargaining agreement, fifth-year options It becomes fully guaranteed when it is practiced. So now, teams need to be absolutely sure of the player before choosing this option.
However, the history of Year 5 options isn’t great. Most players—especially those picked at the end of the first round—don’t excel. While option has some value, most teams simply prefer to give good players new contracts – with which to have better control over short-range cap strikes.
bottom line
With the reigning world champions once again picking up the leaders at the end of the first round, there will be plenty of talk of a trading return. When Kansas City selected running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire after 2020 power In the win, General Manager Brett Veitch revealed that the team was interested in amassing more draft picks, however No team sought a swap.
The Chiefs will be in a similar situation after their latest championship. Veach would probably love to put together more early picks, but history suggests those trades don’t happen often — and when they do, it’s not generally because teams want a fifth-year option in a draft prospect they’re targeting.
It would be nice to trade back – but the Chiefs would likely pick a player with the 31st pick.