An understated offseason roster issue for the Kansas City Chiefs is a lack of depth at running back. While Isiah Pacheco’s rumbling playstyle has contributed to two championships in as many seasons, he is also known to have undergone three surgeries thus far in his career.
On Tuesday, we learned that the Chiefs have re-signed Clyde Edwards-Helaire, their 2020 first-round pick. In Pacheco’s absence, Edwards-Helaire started three games last season. Former Baltimore Ravens running back J.K. Dobbins also reportedly visited the team this week.
However, the Chiefs will likely also look to add at least one player from this year’s draft to the room.
Per Justin Melo of The Draft Network and Music City Miracles (SB Nation’s site for the Tennessee Titans), the Chiefs showed interest in Louisville running back Isaac Guerendo at the East-West Shrine Bowl.
Here’s everything to know about Guerendo.
Background
Guerendo originally signed with Wisconsin as a three-star recruit out of Avon, Indiana. Calling his four-year career with the Badgers underwhelming would be a gross understatement. From 2019-22, Guerendo only totaled a combined 706 yards from scrimmage with a single touchdown. In 2023, he transferred to Louisville for a fifth season of eligibility.
Guerendo’s counting stats from last season — 1104 yards from scrimmage and 11 touchdowns — imply a breakout. While he was doubtlessly a much more effective player after transferring, his game logs still show inconsistency. 333 of his 810 rushing yards at Louisville came in one three-game stretch. Guerendo’s final stat line is also boosted by a monster 203 scrimmage-yard performance in Louisville’s Holiday Bowl loss to USC — a game where many of the Trojans’ starters did not play.
Melo predicted an outstanding 40-yard dash time for Guerendo at the NFL Scouting Combine — and the running back delivered. His 4.33-second time comfortably topped his position group. With such speed paired with his six-foot and 220-pound frame, it is easy to see why teams will be intrigued with the player despite middling production.
Film evaluation
As evidenced by his elite speed, Guerendo is a home run threat whenever he can find a hole. Once into space, he will be too fast for linebackers to catch up to with a body size to outmatch most defensive backs.
The #Chiefs have shown interest in Louisville RB Isaac Guerendo per @JustinM_NFL I have some serious questions about Guerendo’s inconsistent college production, but his combine numbers show during his best moments.
Good things happen when 4.33 40 speed hits the open field pic.twitter.com/Ay93yN8lq2
— Jared Sapp (@TrumanChief) April 1, 2024
Such moments, unfortunately, are far from an every-week Guerendo highlight. His most exciting plays also make his career 6.0 yards per attempt (on only 231 rushes over five seasons) likely somewhat skewed.
While Guerendo’s big plays are tantalizing, the film also suggests why he failed to seize a featured role at Wisconsin. Too many plays see his decision-making flow much more slowly than his timed speed would indicate, as in this clip against Kentucky last season, where a moment’s hesitation turns what should be a certain first-down conversion into a 2-yard loss.
The biggest question about Guerendo is can his processing speed better compliment his timed speed. Too often he almost comes to a complete stop while changing direction or attempting to bounce defenders. pic.twitter.com/B8GpCIz3R8
— Jared Sapp (@TrumanChief) April 2, 2024
Guerendo flashes potential in the receiving game, though on limited opportunities. Any Chiefs running back will need to threaten defenses on screen passes. Evidenced here, Guerendo has potential for one of head coach Andy Reid’s favorite plays.
If you want to know how a running back might fit the Chiefs, watch a screen. Isaac Guerendo looks made for the Andy Reid offense staple. However, totaling less than 400 receiving yards over a five-year college career is confusing. pic.twitter.com/ujQAGK7uLb
— Jared Sapp (@TrumanChief) April 1, 2024
As with any running back who has played for Reid, how well Guerendo’s sizable body translates into pass protection against blitzers would determine the ceiling for his role as a receiver. Guerendo shows a skill the Chiefs covet from running backs by effectively selling himself as a blocker before moving to run the short route.
Running backs like Guerendo may benefit from the league’s new kickoff formation. While this year’s preseason will be our first indication of how teams will approach the rule change, size may become more important for return specialists. If so, running backs like Guerendo with return-game experience might see more opportunities.
Isaac Guerendo might be a player who sees his draft stock rise with the new kickoff rule. Size and speed could see backup running backs factoring more into the return game than the traditional smaller WRs. pic.twitter.com/p0fQw4pxNt
— Jared Sapp (@TrumanChief) April 1, 2024
Guerendo returned 31 kickoffs in college for 714 yards, though with no touchdowns. As with his work in the backfield, he will need to work on more decisive change in direction to make himself stand out.
How he fits the Chiefs
The Chiefs have valued the East-West Shrine Bowl for running backs. Pacheco played in the 2022 version before being selected by Kansas City in the seventh round of that year’s draft. Immediately after the 2023 draft, the Chiefs signed running back Deneric Prince, another Shrine Bowl alumnus.
If drafted by Kansas City, Guerendo would likely compete with Prince and La’Mical Perine to round out the room behind Pacheco and Edwards-Helaire. Reid and staff would likely scheme certain plays to get him into space with the ball. However, expecting him to be more than a high-end rotational player may be unrealistic, as he was during his best college campaign in 2023.
Pacheco initially cut his teeth as the Chiefs’ primary kick returner before taking over as the starting running back midway through his rookie season. Assistant head coach and special teams coordinator Dave Toub would almost certainly look at Guerendo’s long speed on returns.
Despite his impressive combine numbers, Guerendo remains a pure lottery ticket. Whichever team drafts him will be banking that he becomes a much better pro than college talent. Guerendo will also turn 24 as a rookie — a drawback for many prospects in a draft class that received an extra year of eligibility due to the COVID pandemic. A fair question is how much he can improve his current skill level.
Combine darlings tend to be targeted early on the third day of most drafts, meaning a fourth-round selection may be required to secure Guerendo’s services. A wiser decision may be to use a third-rounder on Wisconsin running back Braelon Allen (currently 99th on The Athletic’s consensus draft board) — who largely kept Guerendo off the field while they were teammates for two seasons.
Guerendo’s physical tools are worth considering should he last into the deeper rounds.