We asked your questions and you provided them (thank you!). There have been a number of questions about Jaylen Brown, and since this is the most important topic of the offseason, I thought I’d make a post dedicated to answering questions about him and his situation. Stay tuned for the next section coming soon with my answers on the rest of the roster and squad.
gikidaman
Would Brown take a lower 250… No
Will the Celtics field over 250….no
Jeff I’m thinking he’s going to Houston….. your thoughts
Although I think this is an oversimplification, I think there is a case to be made for the thought process of a more refined decision tree.
So you start by choosing between the following options:
-Keep Jaylen Brown in SuperMax contract
– Brown traded for some player packs and picks that are almost equal value
If you want to keep him, you still have to see if Jaylen Brown is interested in Supermax. I think it’s because it’s the most money he can get, but he might prefer to fulfill his contract and become a free agent. If this is the case, you are immediately looking to trade it.
If you decide to trade him, either now or later, you have to decide whether you want another star player in exchange or decline in immediate talent in favor of future potential (and cost savings). See more ideas on this below.
This is simplistic because a lot of these issues are intertwined, but it might help to piece things together rather than trying to address the broad question all at once like “Does Jaylen Brown deserve the cap under the new CBA rules?”
Talk 05
Do you see Jaylen agreeing to a more team-friendly deal (one that doesn’t break the bank for the team’s payroll, but still reflects his standing in the NBA)? Jaylen strikes me less about making money, but about mutual respect, which makes me think it’s possible. If so, what would it look like?
Technically, the Celtics have the option to offer Jaylen more than the standard max and less than the SuperMax. This would be more than any other team could pay him and in theory would save some money that could go toward another player’s salary.
With that said, I don’t see the benefits outweighing the negatives. You might be able to save a few million dollars (forgive me, I don’t know the exact numbers), but you run the risk of insulting and outsmarting Jaylen who actually made a friendly deal with the team on his last contract. As others have noted, he is the Vice President of the Players Association and there is pressure there to maximize what he gets as a precedent for other players.
The only exception is that Jaylen Brown came to the Celtics with the idea of taking one less in order to add another player. However, each person involved will need to have a clear plan for who this added piece will be.
The bottom line is that this path seems unlikely.
33
Do the Celtics have enough assets to move up in the draft for a highly regarded player?
If they decide to trade Jaylen Brown, then yes. I think they can make a real bid for one of the top 2 picks in the draft (if they want to). If that’s the direction they want to go, I imagine they’ll target Scoot Henderson who has all the makings of an elite combo guard in the NBA. But he won’t be at the level of Jaylen in his first year or two (if ever) so the team has to balance what they’re looking for. Which leads me to…
Cells
I’m not saying they should do that. But if the Celtics scout a deal for Jaylen Brown, what realistic package should he get?
The Celtics are the title contenders at the moment. You can argue that distinction if you want to, but making it to the finals last year and winning so far from the finals this season suggests they’re in a race. If some things get in the way in either year, you could be champions.
If a team thinks that bringing it back with some changes outside of the core gives them another reasonable chance to contend for the championship, they will. If they decide they’ve reached their limit with this group and a change needs to be made, I suppose they’ll still be looking to compete for titles in the near future. All of which means that they’d probably prefer to trade Jaylen for a star of equal caliber.
The problem is that it is very difficult to complete star trades by star. More often than not, the team dealing with the superstar is looking to demolish and restart with a set of shots and expectations. Take Portland, for example. The general idea is that they will either take Dame’s pool of picks and prospects or they will look to build around Dame with their pick and pool of players for another superstar. Dealing Dame for Jaylen just doesn’t make sense.
However, it only takes one star to claim a change of scenery and who knows what could happen. Maybe they can work something out with Carl Anthony Towns, LaMelo Ball or Bradley Bell running back (with picks and players going one way or the other to balance the trade).
If not, you may be left with a step back in order to take a step forward. A high draft pick and intriguing player deal is probably the best you can get. This could be a tough sell for Jayson Tatum as he prepares to sign his SuperMax contract. Especially with the limited time left with Al Horford on the roster. You may need to bring in a third team in order to turn those assets around to get a star now.
As you can see, none of this is easy or straightforward. On the one hand, it looks like a Bill Belichick-type decision maker would look to move someone a year in advance (before it got too expensive). On the other hand, we’re so close that it looks like we should pretty much bring it back and pay the money Jaylen earned. There will always be an opportunity to trade him later (maybe not as much as he did this summer, but still a great return).
Dave Higgins
Hey Jeff. With four conference finals and one trip to the NBA Finals, can Boston lose the Browns and still compete for the Larry O’Brien Trophy? Should a team trade an All NBA player for a dream? Has any team ever traded an All NBA player and got better? I’m not talking about money. Just talent. She replaced Houston Harden and became a permanent lottery team. The Pelicans traded Anthony Davis and are still praying that his replacement can be healthy for a year.
Those are good questions, Dave. I think if you’re in favor of trading Brown, you either need to hope another superstar returns in return, or you need to be prepared to take at least a temporary step. I’m not there yet, but I guess we’ll see.
Well, those were my thoughts and my somewhat sparse answers to your Jaylen Brown questions. I’ll follow up with the rest of the answers soon. Thanks!