After the Celtics lost their first 3 games in embarrassing fashion, they were expected to be swept. Then they won Game 4 116-99 in Miami and went home to win Game 5 110-97. The Celtics rediscovered their defensive identity, holding the Heat below 100 points in both victories. Going back to last season, the Celtics are 7-1 in playoff games. They are 4-0 in playoff games this season.
Teams have found themselves in the 0-3 hole in the playoffs 150 times in NBA history. Of those 150 teams, 92, or 61%, lost Game 4 and were swept. Of the remaining 58 teams that avoided a sweep, 44 of those teams lost in Game 5. Of the 14 teams that won Game 5, 11 lost Game 6. Of these three teams were able to win match 7.
After feeling awkward in Game 3, the Celtics had a meeting and said they were all on the same page and ready to play together. Joe Mazzola, after taking the blame for the Game 3 collapse, said he trusted his players to pull this off. The Celtics are not out yet, Al Horford said. If they find their defensive DNA, they can win the series. Jaylen Brown said that they will fight to the end and that they need to go out and play with pride. They showed that defensive identity and fight in Games 4 and 5. Hopefully, they can continue in this game.
There is a precedent for Boston coming back from a 0-3 deficit, despite the lack of a Celtics team. in 2004, Boston Red Sox Face the opponent New York Yankees in ALCS. They lost the first 3 games of the series and were trailing in the 9th inning of the 4th inning. They came back to win the last 4 games of that series and then went on to sweep the St. Louis Cardinals at World Championship to win the title. Along with this Red Sox team, 4 hockey teams have recovered from being down 0-3 in the playoffs to win the series. But, no team in the NBA has accomplished this feat.
Danilo Gallinari remains out for the Celtics as they continue to rehabilitate a shattered AFC Champions League. Malcolm Brogdon was playing through a partially torn tendon in his elbow which was causing pain all over his right forearm. He was cleared to play in game five on Thursday but struggled with zero points (0-2 FG, 0-2 3Pt). He left Game 5 after playing only 8 minutes and did not return. It is listed as questionable for this game and will be a match time decision. If he plays, he will likely be tied up again. Expect Derrick White, Grant Williams, and possibly Payton Pritchard to get more playing time if he can’t play.
Gabe Vincent missed Game 5 after spraining his ankle in the second inning of Game 4. He was able to finish Game 4 but was ruled out in Game 5. He is listed as questionable for this game and his condition will be a gametime decision. I expect him to play but if he can’t, I expect Kyle Lowry to start in his place. Victor Oladipo missed the season after undergoing surgery on the patellar tendon in his left knee. Tyler Herro was also stayed out after breaking his middle and ring finger on his right hand in the first round of a series against Milwaukee.
Potential Celtics appetizer
PG: Marcus Smart
Secretary General: Derek White
SF: Jaylen Brown
PF: Jason Tatum
A: Al Horford
Celtics reserves
Grant Williams
Sam Hauser
Peyton Pritchard
Luke Cornet
Blake Griffin
Mike Muscala
Robert Williams III
2 players way
JD Davison
Mviondo Capangel
out / injuries
Exit by Danilo Gallinari (ACL).
Malcolm Brogdon (Crank) is questionable
Coach
Joe Mazola
Potential heat appetizers
PG: Gabe Vincent
SG: Max Stress
SF: Jimmy Butler
PF: Kevin Love
A: Bam Adebayo
heat reserves
Odonis Haslem
Haywood Highsmith
Nikola Jovic
Kyle Lowry
Caleb Martin
Duncan Robinson
Cody Zeller
Omar Yurtseven
2 players way
Jamal Cain
Drew Smith
injuries
Tyler Hero (hand)
Victor Oladipo (knee) is out
Gabe Vincent (ankle) is questionable
Coach
Eric Spoelstra
major matches
Jason Tatum vs. Jimmy Butler
These two superstars are key to the success of their teams. Butler struggled in Game 3, finishing with just 14 points while shooting 33% from the field and hitting only 1 of 7 3-pointers, but with little Celtics defense, the Players stepped up and sealed the win. Butler finished Game 4 with 29 points, 9 rebounds, 5 assists, 1 steal, and 1 block but shot only 42.9% from the field and 23% from outside the arc. He struggled again in Game 5 with 14 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists, and 3 steals but only took 10 shots. He’s potentially aggressive looking to take over this game and the Celtics should be ready for it. Jason Tatum has to be aggressive on offense and defense for the Celtics to stand a chance in this game.
Al Horford vs Bam Adebayo
After playing well in Games 1 and 2, Adebayo had a very quiet Game 3, finishing with 13 points, 3 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal, and 1 block. He also had a quiet Game 4 with 10 points, 5 rebounds and 1 steal. Shot 57.1% from the field. He finished Game 5 with 16 points, 8 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals and 1 block. He shot 53.3% from the field and did not attempt a 3-point shot. He is dangerous around the basket to score and grab rebounds. The Celtics need to keep him off the paint as well as off the plates. When he is aggressive, he can be a big problem.
honorific
Grant Williams vs. Duncan Robinson
This will be a match between the major reserves. Robinson finished the fifth game with 18 points, 4 rebounds and 9 assists. He shot 70% from the field and 66.7% from outside the arc. It is a good and dangerous shooter on the ocean. However, he is not the best defender and the Celtics can target him more often when they are looking to score. Grant Williams has played very well in this series and the Celtics need him to be aggressive on both offense and defense, especially with Brogdon whether limited or away.
game keys
defense Defense will always be the biggest key to winning every game and it’s even more important in the playoffs. The Celtics’ biggest failure in their first 3 games was defense. We finally saw the Celtics return to their defensive identity in Games 4 and 5 and they need to keep going in that regard if they hope to win this game. In Games 4 and 5, the defense directed the offense as they got stops, forced turnovers, and were running for transitional baskets. The Celtics forced 16 turnovers in Game 5 for the Celtics’ 27 points. The Celtics must once again make defense their priority in this game.
recovery – As with defense, rebounding will always be the key to victory. A lot of rebounding is effort and hustle and when the Celtics put that extra effort into grabbing rebounds, it usually translates to other areas of the game as well. The Celtics were out rebounding in both Games 1 and 2. However, they outscored the Heat 57-35 in Game 3 with 21 of those rebounds on offense. This was due in part to the Celtics missing so many shots and heat logging most of their shots. The Celtics lost 44-39 in Game 4, but defeated Miami 37-36 in Game 5 and outscored them on second chance points 17-7. The Celtics have to work harder on the boards than the Heat and win the rebound battle if they want to win this game.
Be aggressive The Celtics must be the most aggressive team. For the first three games, they let Heat be more aggressive and play with more energy and effort. The Celtics should be more aggressive in driving to the basket, diving for loose balls, in boxing and chasing rebounds, and they should be the team that plays the most aggressively. The Celtics, in particular, should be more aggressive on defense. They have to have each other’s backs and they have to play smart team defense again. Five seconds into the fifth, Marcus Smart immediately set the tone for stripping the ball off Bam Adebayo, diving on the loose ball, then hooking it up to Tatum to block the ball and advance quickly. This is what set the tone of the game. They need the same aggressiveness throughout match 6 if they are to win it.
3 point shooting Three-point shooting is important to the Celtics. The Celtics are 38-2 when they shoot 40% or more from outside the arc. In their first 3 games, the Celtics shot 29% on 3-pointers and 39% on 3-pointers. In Games 4 and 5, they shot 40% on the 3-pointer and 53% on the 3-pointer. The Celtics have to focus on moving the ball to find the open man and create the best shots and they have to stay focused on making those shots.
X-factors
On the road The Celtics are playing on the road again in this series. They need to get past the distractions of travel and away from their homes and families and they need to avoid being disturbed by the hostile crowd. The Celtics need to set that up and play their game the right way. They’ve played better on the road than they’ve played at home so far in the playoffs and they need to focus on the road in this game. They won Game 4 in Miami and they need to dig deeper again and get that win on the road to extend their season.
training – There’s been a lot going on between the rookie coach Joe Mazzola and the very experienced Erik Spoelstra. Joe Mazzola came under a lot of scrutiny for his lineup decisions, lack of timeouts, and other coaching decisions in the first 3 games, but he did get some praise for his decisions in Games 4 and 5. The first 3 games, however, Mazzola finished first in the last 2 games. Who is the coach who will make the right moves in this game?
The verdict – Efficiency is always an x factor in every game. Every crew works differently. Some call it cramped, others let it play. Some prefer the home team. Some prefer the road team. Some just make bad calls, head scratching. Sometimes administrators have an agenda of some kind. The Celtics need to adapt to how the referees call the game and not let bad calls and no calls put them out of the game or affect their focus. The Celtics simply must stop complaining about every single call. Focus on playing the game, not on the officials.