With college basketball’s transfer gate season potentially over, it seems like a good time for preseason brackets and the anticipated NCAA tournament bracket. I say I’m done, but there have been at least three noteworthy transitions this week, so it’s not over yet. I’m not sure it really ends.
One team that has taken full advantage of the gate is preseason top seed Kansas. The Jayhawks added Michigan’s Hunter Dickinson and Towson’s three-point machine Nick Timberlake to the roster. They also brought back KJ Adams, Dajuan Harris, and Kevin McCullar, and added a five-star recruit in Elmarko Jackson. Bill Self’s side look poised for another title.
The expected second seed is Duke, which is looking strong again this season with the return of its top four scorers and bringing them into the second-ranked recruiting class. Last season’s team took some time to come together. The Blue Devils finished strong, winning their last nine regular season and conference tournament games before bowing out in the second round of the NCAA Tournament.
No. 3 overall seed Purdue welcomes back the bulk of its production from last season, which saw the Boilermakers win the Big Ten regular season championship with three games and the conference championship. The Boilers’ NCAA Tournament loss as the top seed to No. 16 seed Fairleigh Dickinson is what everyone will remember. Purdue needed to get more sport in the ocean and freshmen Cam Hyde and Miles Colvin should help with that. Consensus National Player of the Year Zach Eddy will try to replicate those honors, but this team knows it will only be judged on its performance in March.
Michigan State rounds out the projected top four. The Spartans got some welcome news in the NBA Draft Deadline is when guards Jaden Akins and AJ Hoggard decided to return to MSU. That means coach Tom Izzo has returned five of his top six scorers and a top-10 recruiting class led by five-star Xavier Booker. Not only should the Spartans challenge Purdue for the conference title, but they could also advance to the national title.
Top seeds in brackets
Check out Palm’s full chip, Field 68 in Bracketology Hub.
SEC, Big Ten are marching
The SEC and Big Ten lead the way with eight teams each in this category. The SEC is led by No. 2 ranked Tennessee. The Big East has seven teams that include three of the top nine teams, Marquette, Creighton, and UConn.
There are also seven Big 12 teams, which no longer match the conference record for highest percentage of conference membership in the field. The league has placed seven of its ten teams in multiple times, but they’re down to 14 members this season with the addition of BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF. Only cougars are shown among that group in the arc.
Pump the brakes at FAU
I’m not as highly of a FAU in the pre-season as you might see elsewhere. A projected No. 4 seed, the Owls had a memorable run to the Final Four last season after a 31-3 regular season record that included a schedule without another NCAA Tournament team. The network loved them for getting results when they could, but the No. 8 seed was fair considering their schedule.
The Owls became the third team in the last three tournaments to reach the Final Four with a seed of No. 8 or lower. The previous two, North Carolina (2022) and UCLA (2011) were ranked in the top five of the following pre-season and failed to meet those expectations. North Carolina became the only team to go from preseason #1 to missing a tournament altogether. It’s a job to overreact to a few games in March versus what the team has been up to all season.
FAU should get some games against an NCAA Tournament quality opponent this season. This can help them build a case for better seeds. And most of last year’s cast will also return. However, history tells us that teams that make a significant jump in the rankings to the top of the category are rare in this situation. Wichita State did it in 2014 after a Final Four run in 2013 as the No. 9 seed. This Shockers team went undefeated in the regular season and was the No. 1 seed, but lost in the second round to No. 8 seed Kentucky. This Wildcats team went to the Final Four and was also one of the best works in the following season. They won their most recent national championship that season and are the only team to enter the Final Four as a No. 8 seed or lower and return to the Final Four the following season.
bits in brackets
- As you probably know, teams cannot play home in the NCAA Tournament nor can they play where they host it. This season Creighton cannot play an NCAA Tournament first round game in Omaha because it is being played on home field by the Bluejays and they are the host. However, Gonzaga, which is located in Spokane, can play in the Spokane Sub-Regional because it is not played at their home ground and they do not host it.
- In this category, I’m not checking potential regular season rematches, which the committee likes to avoid early in the tournament because many schedules aren’t available yet. I will be checking back just before the season starts.