We continue our analysis of the performance of the Washington Capitals forward group for the 2022-23 season by taking a closer look at the performance of every line kit each of the Capitals forwards have deployed over the course of the season.
The refined look tries to gain additional insight into what worked and what didn’t work, line by line, and help identify specific “needs” the team will have for the upcoming season.
Previous Line Ratings:
Today’s focus is on Alexi Brutas. Protas scored four goals and made 11 assists in 58 matches he played with the capital team last season. He finished with a personal goals expected percentage of 54.56% on the season, second best in the Capitals, while seeing only 30.36% offensive zone starts.
All fonts posted
The following chart plots all of the line combinations posted with Protas for the 2022-23 season in a five-by-five (sans lines that included Marcus Johansson, Lars Eller, and Garnet Hathaway).
The graph includes the total time each line was on the ice (TOI), percentage of offensive zone encounters each line was on the ice for (OZFO%), expected goal difference (xGF – xGA) and expected goals in percentage (xGF%) spread in five over five. [Click to enlarge].
[The statistics used in this post are courtesy of Natural Stat Trick and the NoVa Caps Advanced Analytics Model (NCAAM). If you’d like to learn more about the statistical terms used in this post, please check out our NHL Analytics Glossary]
NOTE: The thin horizontal red line above divides the positive and negative predicted targets for the percentages of all line combinations.
What worked
We previously discussed performance Mind dood op copels The line scores in Dowd and Aube-Kubel’s line ratings, but it bears stressing that the line posted positive possession metrics that barely initiate any change in the offensive zone. That’s impressive. We’ll likely see that fourth-line mix a little bit next season, depending on the results of his training camp site fights.
As noted in our Aube-Kubel line performance review, the Malenstyn-Protas-Aube-Kubel The line is an interesting consideration of potential things to come. The streak saw only 15.03 time on the ice at five-for-five, but managed a respectable expected goals percentage of 48.4%, seeing the majority of their territory start in the defensive zone. If Malenstyn makes the team this fall, we should see a lot more from this line group.
What didn’t work
There hasn’t been a lot of not working with Brutas in terms of common line acquisition metrics. the Protas Kuznetsov Ver The line scored 41.2% expected goals percentage and over 80% offensive zone starts, but posted just over eight minutes of total ice time at five-on-five.
Context and caveats
As previously noted, streaks that included Garnet Hathaway and other players left at the trade deadline were not included. However, we must add that Brutus did well on the fourth line with Dodd and Hathaway.
As we noted in our previous article on fourth-line options, Brutas settled into the “Hagelin Spot” and did well in the fourth line during Mallensteen’s absence (injury) last season. So much so that Capitals didn’t rush Malenstyn back from his adaptation stint at Hershey. It will be interesting to see where the new training system lands on fourth-line options.
The Protas’ overall utility makes it a valuable asset, even if it were to drop to 13th on the list.
Written by John Sorensen