We kicked off our review of the 2022-23 Washington Capitals season with a goalkeeping analysis earlier this week. Next is an individual assessment of each of the Capitals’ defensemen for the 2022-23 season. We begin our blueline review on capitals with Alex Alexeev.
Alexeyev, 23, was the Capitals’ first-round pick (31st overall) in the 2018 NHL Entry Draft. Left defenseman 6′-4″ I signed a three-year entry-level contract on September 24, 2018 for $863,333 AAV and is on file A restricted free agent this summer.
The Capitals announced on June 18 that Alexeyev had undergone surgery to repair his left shoulder and was expected to miss 4–5 months. As a result, Alekseev missed training camp and the start of the 2022-23 season. Moreover, Alexeyev hasn’t been cut off on waivers this season, which has made things even more difficult for him to manage.
The Hershey Bears announced on October 28 that Alekseev had been officially loaned to the Bears on a long-term injury conditioning assignment. After four games with the Bears and the maximum time allowed for an injury conditioning assignment, the Capitals recalled Alexeyev from Hershey on November 8.
Alexeyev made his regular season debut with the Capitals the next night against Pittsburgh. He did not play again until December 3, but by that point had become a regular in the starting lineup for D.C.
2022-23 season stats
For the 2022-23 season, Alexeyev played in 32 games, had no goals, five assists and was -2 in over 500 minutes of ice time. Below are Alexeyev’s all-round season stats. [Click to enalrge].
[The statistics used in this post are courtesy of Natural Stat Trick, MoneyPuck and the NoVa Caps Advanced Analytics Model (NCAAM). If you’d like to learn more about the statistical terms used in this post, please check out our NHL Analytics Glossary]
While Alexiev’s core possession metrics appear low (and they are, xGF% = 41.28%), the stats include a slow start to his season. His possession stats have been slowly climbing toward the end of the season, as you’ll see in the next section. It should also be noted that Alexeyev saw the majority of his starts in the defensive zone, a sign of the Capitals Test, but he trusted him in such a role.
Alekseev’s turn differential was poor, -13, and he took more hits than he did. Both stats will need to improve if he is going to find a permanent starting role. His expected goal difference was also negative, but this too was improving towards the end of the season.
doubles performance
Alexeyev has been posted to nine different pairs for the 2022-23 season (not including the pairs with Dmitry Orlov and Eric Gustafsson). The following graph plots each pair’s performance (left and right side assignments), including time on the ice, offensive zone tackle percentage, expected goals and projected goals variance for percentages at five-on-five: [Click to enlarge].
We have noted in previous posts that Alexeyev van Riemsdyk The pairing has thrived this season, and has been one of the best performing pairings for the Capitals, all while seeing just 27.91% of the area’s offensive tackles. If Alexeyev lands a starting role on opening night, you can be sure he’ll be paired with Van Riemsdyk.
the Alexeyev Fairvari The pairing, first implemented during Herhsey’s rookie seasons, has yet to materialize. The Capitals gave the pairing more than 120 minutes together at five-on-five, but overall positive results were yet to come.
It’s worth noting that the two hooked up with a good-looking goal late in the season, which hopefully is a harbinger of things to come.
Alexeyev’s numbers appeared to be dropping quickly after his pairing numbers with Van Riemsdyk, but his other teammate at the end of the season was Matt Irwin, when Van Riemsdyk was injured) and the pair did a decent job, suggesting that Alexeyev’s game was picking up momentum towards the end of the season.
rate plus minus rate
Next, we can take a look at how Alexeyev performs in per-sixty-minute rates compared to the league using a plus-minus rate (RAPM):
As Justin notes in his mid-season review of Alexeyev (here), it’s not surprising to see Alexeyev’s predicted goals per sixty (xGF/60) or Corsi’s shot attempts per sixty (CF/60) fall well below replacement level. zero here.
Alexeyev has actually done well at goals per sixty (xGA/60), which means Alexeyev is a bit farther defensively than he is offensively.
isolated effect
We can also look at Alexeyev’s individual impact when he’s on the ice via HockeyViz.
The numbers haven’t changed much since Justin’s initial assessment (here), though his offensive percentage has dropped from -4% to -6%. His penalty comparison is rather impressive considering his experience and how well he does in killing.
2023-24 season predictions
It should be noted that Alexeyev started the season slowly, and most of his numbers were improving as the season ended. But the question remains, have you improved enough.
The Capitals tested Alexiev in the final third of the season, including ample time on the penalty spot and giving him the majority of defensive zone turnovers. Alexeyev answered the bell in many cases and thrived in certain situations (being paired with van Riemsdyk), but in no way established that he should take one of the six points to start next season. That will be decided in training camp, assuming the Capitals don’t deal with him and they re-sign the restricted free agent.
Injuries remain a concern, as we have documented many times since the day he was drafted (here). Although he sustained a serious knee injury during his time in the WHL, the majority of his significant injuries hit his shoulders, which is something to consider when making an overall assessment. Hopefully, his shoulder surgery last summer will reduce some of that.
The Capitals’ best turn heading into the 2023-24 season, barring a massive run in the preseason, would be to hand Alexiev the seventh defense role to start the season. Show enough up the stretch to earn that as a starting point. This position will allow for his continued development and allow him to work his way up to a junior role.
As for Alexeyev, he ended his media interview on the day of the crash with plans for another season.
Written by John Sorensen
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