The Celtics’ surprising resurgence in the last two games of the Eastern Conference Finals did not include the return of Malcolm Brogdon.
The Sixth Man of the Year continues to battle a mysterious forearm injury that forced him out with less than eight minutes of playing time in Game 5. Brogdon was listed as questionable in Boston’s Game 6 injury report as of Friday night with a right forearm strain.
Jared Weiss the athlete I previously reported that Brogdon was playing through a partially torn tendon in his elbow, and was dealing with soreness going back to Round 2 before the injury aggravated in Game 1.
Although Brogdon’s current state of health is a bit unclear, the injury undoubtedly hampered his influence. He only shoots 33% from the field in conference finals and 3 of 16 from distance. Brogdon’s minutes have decreased dramatically in each subsequent game in this series, and he has only made one field goal in the last three contests.
If Brogdon can’t go on Saturday, the increasing pressure is clearly on Derrick White and Marcus Smart to kick the ball and lead the basketball. But even if Brogdon is given the green light, how effective will it be?
Brogdon is instrumental in the Celtics’ offensive goals. He drives the ball 7.8 tackles per game in the postseason, third most on the entire team behind only Jason Tatum and Jaylen Brown, though naturally down to 6.4 in the series due to his limited minutes.
The Celtics traded to Brogdon last summer because they needed a punch in the paint. All this season, when they’ve lost their luster, he wasn’t afraid to buckle up and zoom to the basket. The dribbling breakthrough will help Boston flex the Miami area and overall defense. Brogdon helps maintain that pressure.
But it is his record on the perimeter, from all sides, that has helped him reach the level of this year’s laureate. The 30-year-old made an unreal leap as a shooter.
According to PBP Stats, Brogdon was one of 60 NBA players to attempt more than 100 “self-created” triples (attempts after holding the ball for at least two seconds) and “assisted” threes (attempts in less than two seconds). Amazingly, Brogdon shot 44.1% and 44.6% near-identical in those contexts, respectively. He ranked first in that group of 60 in pull-ups and third on the catch and shoot side.
Brogdon fits many offensive roles for Boston. It can be a five-position break. He can start with a jump threat or save the team late in the hour. And we watched him extend his success into the postseason until the untimely injury.
What now?
It’s admirable that Brogdon struggled through the pain – but word got out. Could Heat hang on to him because they know he has an injury? Can Brogdon attract defenders as well?
The ultimate team make-or-miss
As predicted, the Celtics will live and die by the 3.
They found a high quality look from 3FG up to the series. But the result was strongly correlated with 3FG% that night. pic.twitter.com/UhoY0BkqWU
– Shot_Quality May 26, 2023
Then there is a note like this. Everyone understands that Boston wants to shoot triples from all locations on Earth at a high rate. Brogdon can and should keep shooting at them even while he’s in harm’s way. But how damaging are his mistakes to the team?
However, the Celtics need him on the ground for his additional roles as a catcher and passer. Payton Pritchard, a great shooter as he is, doesn’t offer much inside the arc, and he’ll also be a concern against a Heat defense that likes to catch mismatches.
Joe Mazzulla could also choose to put more pressure on the spin, putting more of the burden on Marcus Smart and Derrick White to create the dribbling with the Jays. Are they ready to add more use of the ball to their other responsibilities?
In the regular season—or even a different playoff series—Boston could be content to rest Brogdon or let him power through the struggles. The Celtics, however, escaped the opportunity to experience when they lost 3-0.
Mazzola will have to prove virtually every managerial decision if his side are to make a historic comeback. Brogdon’s dilemma – whether or not to play him, how much and in what contexts – is one of the next big tests for the young coach.