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Welcome to the PGA Tour’s weekly gambling advice column, featuring picks from GOLF.com’s forecasting expert, Brady Cannon. Veteran golf fan and commentator, Kannon is the host of HeatStrokes Podcast. You can follow him on Twitter at @employee, and you can read below to see his favorite plays at the Wells Fargo Championship, which kicks off Thursday at Quail Hollow Club, in Charlotte. Keep scrolling through Kannon’s picks, and you’ll also see data from Chirp, Free to play mobile platform It features a range of games with attractive prizes, giving fans all kinds of ways to get in on the action without risking any money.
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This week brings another particular event, the Wells Fargo Championship, and at one of the best courses in the country, Quail Hollow Club, is hosting the tournament for the 16th time. Most of the best players in the world are here and for many this may be their last adjustment before the PGA Championship at Oak Hill. Of the notables, only John Rahm and Scottie Scheffler decided to skip this week. Next week is Byron Nelson in McKinney, Texas, and then to Oak Hill and look for the Wanamaker Cup.
Both last week – Vedanta’s Mexican Open – and this week should give us some insight into what it takes to win the PGA Championship. Both Vidanta, where Tony Finau prevailed, and Quail Hollow are big possessions where length to a tee is rewarded. Vidanta was 7,456 yards par-71, Quail Hollow is 7,554 yards par-71, and Oak Hill will play 7,390 yards par-70. Quail is scheduled to host its second PGA Championship in the spring of 2025.
Big golf is definitely the theme of the tour in recent weeks. Leading the Tour in driving distance is Rory McIlroy, and he has won the Wells Fargo Championship three times. (When Jim Furyk won here in 2006, he was the only Wells Fargo winner to finish 28th in the driving distance field that week.) A combination of distance and accuracy off the tee. I also used Strokes Gained: Off the Tee on my handicap this week.
Quail Hollow was originally designed by George Cobb in 1961 but is now mainly treated as a Tom Fazio design as he made extensive changes to the course in 1997 and further modifications in 2013, 2014 and 2017. It will be a long play On iron is a significant side in Quail Hollow with the majority of pa-4s dropping between 450-500 yards. Three of the four par-3s extend out to over 200 yards. I looked at Hole Proximity this week from 175-200 yards.
Bermuda greens, which are hard and fast. This can also give taller hitters an advantage as they can come up with shorter irons that produce more high shots, with the aim of landing the ball more quietly on firm court surfaces. Scrambling has also been a key statistic in this tournament over the years. The last three Quail Hollow winners—Jason Day, Max Homa, and Rory McIlroy—placed 2nd, 2nd and 1st in the Scrambling field of the week.
Finally, a few things about this course and its components. Because the 2017 PGA Championship and 2022 Presidents Cup were held in Quail Hollow, Wells Fargo was moved to different locations in those years. It was also skipped in 2020 due to Covid 19. In the other 15 pars on this course, the last three holes, known as the “Green Mile”, have been played as one of the toughest finishing periods on the tour, with a near perfect average shooting par. Over the years this tournament has been held at Quail Hollow, this is one of the strongest Tour tournaments in the history of the course, which means those who play well here usually do so year after year.
For related courses this week, I looked at Fazio builds like Congaree, site of the 2022 CJ Cup, and Caves Valley, site of the 2021 BMW Championship. I looked at big, tall courses like Winged Foot, site of the 2020 US Open, as well Torrey Pines, where Total Driving is a crucial component.
For winning the Wells Fargo Championship (and finishing in the Top 20)
Rory McIlroy (+750)
In the past two weeks, we’ve had short prices at the top of the leaderboard. The team of Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlie went under 4-1 at the Zurich Classic in New Orleans. Last week Jon Rahm traded at around +250. I stayed away at the time, but now I’m going to explore what the shortest shot of the week is.
Rory had a long break after missing the cut at the Masters. He’s well rested and back in action on a course he’s dominated in his career. In addition to his three wins, McIlroy also finished 2nd, 10th, 8th twice, and 4th. Over the past 36 rounds, he’s been first in the field for driving distance, fifth in SG Off the Tee, fifth in SG Approach, fourth on par-4s from 450-500 yards, as well as fourth in Hole Proximity of 175-200. If stats and course history weren’t enough, he has two Top 5 finishes at Torrey Pines, was eighth at Winged Foot, fourth at Caves Valley, and won last fall at Congaree.
Cameron Young (21-1)
Young is one of the biggest hitters on the tour and ranks 16th in total drives. He is also 5th in the Tour in Hole Proximity 175-200. Young is familiar with this course, having attended nearby Wake Forest University. I also love the fact that his new bag is Paul Tesori. Tesori used to bag Webb Simpson, an old member of Quail Hollow. Tesori’s insight and experience with this course should go a long way.
Victor Hovland (21-1)
The theme of big hitters and some of the best drivers continues with Hovland, who finished 7th in the Masters Tournament, being the Round 1 leader, and was around the next week at Harbor Town, opening with a 64. Hovland is 4th in Total Driving and 39th in Racing. Scrambling. Over the last 36 rounds, he’s ranked 8th in the field for SG Off the Tee, 19th in SG Approach, and 6th in par-4s from 450-500 yards. He has finished third here in the past and second at Torrey Pines.
Sungjae M (25-1)
Im playing almost every week on tour but didn’t last week in Mexico so I love that he took a week off to rest before this week’s test. He is 17th in the Tour of Total Driving as well as in Scrambling. While not quite as far off the tee as some of the others, he’s still 12th in the field over SG: Off the Tee’s last 36 runs. Im also finished 6th and 4th at Torrey Pines in his career and finished 3rd last fall at the CJ Cup in Congaree.
Sam Burns (36-1)
Burns went through a short dry spell in late February and early March this season, but rebounded quickly with a sixth-place finish in Valspar and a win in the WGC Dell Match Play, and he has since scored two top 15 finishes. He specializes in Bermuda grass. Over the last 36 innings, he is 2nd in the field to SG Putting and avoids 3 strokes on Bermuda – also 12th in driving distance and 17th in scrambling. Burns finished 7th in Congaree and 8th in Caves Valley in 2021.
Gary Woodland (80-1)
One of the best drivers in the game, Woodland is seventh in the field for driving distance over the last 36 rounds, sixth in SG Off the Tee, eighth in SG Approach and ninth in Hole Proximity from 175-200 yards. He has had two top 5 finishes at Wells Fargo in the past and two top 10 finishes at the Farmers Insurance Open in Torrey Pines.
Full tournament head-to-head matches (23-15-2 since the beginning of the year)
Rory McIlroy (-170) on Xander Schauffele
Rory McIlroy (-140) on Patrick Cantlay
Cameron Young (-135) over Matt Fitzpatrick
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