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Welcome to the PGA Tour’s weekly gambling advice column, featuring picks from GOLF.com’s forecasting expert, Brady Cannon. Veteran golf fan and commentator, Kannon is the host of HeatStrokes Podcast. You can follow him on Twitter at @tweet, and you can read below to see his favorite plays at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, which kicks off Thursday at the Detroit Golf Club. Keep scrolling through Kannon’s picks, and you’ll also see data from Chirp, Free to play mobile platform It features a range of games with attractive prizes, giving fans all kinds of ways to get in on the action without risking any money.
Is this Ricky’s summer? In recent weeks, we’ve seen Ricky Fowler head into the final round of the US Open tied for the lead. We’ve seen him shoot 60 in the Travelers Championship. He’s finished inside the top 10 in his last three starts, and aside from missing the PGA Championship by one shot—his only missing cut of the season—he’s never finished worse than 31st in over six months.
It’s a huge turnaround since last September, when Fowler slipped to No. 185 — a career-low in the Official World Golf Ranking. He’s now at number 35. It was great to watch. And it looks like his sixth career tour win is coming soon.
If it happens this week, it will be at the Detroit Golf Club, a Donald Ross Design that hosts the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Fowler sponsors Rocket Mortgage and has played in all four editions of the tournament. His best score is 12. Last year, he missed the cut. This year, he shared a space at the top of the odds board, as partner favorite with reigning champion, Tony Finau. I’ve seen them all go anywhere from 12 to 14-1 to win it this week.
The Detroit Golf Club is one of the easiest courses to schedule. It is flat, contains only one water hazard, and although its fairways are tree-lined, they are wide and bordered by very little roughness. In the four years of the event, the average winning score was 23 below par. We saw soft conditions last week in Cromwell, Connecticut produce a festival of birds at the Travelers Championship. There were storms this week in the Detroit area and the forecast calls for scattered thundery rain on Saturday. At any point during the event, winds are expected to gust over 10 mph. You saw the 72-hole Win Proposition bet posted this week at 24.5, which means you can go over 263.5 or less to get a winning score. I like the bottom. I think your winner will get to 25 under par or better, and we might see some guys flirt with 59, as we did last week. Last week’s course, TPC River Highlands, was played at par 70, with a par of just under 6,900 yards. The Detroit Golf Club is 72 feet long, measuring just under 7,400 yards.
The golf course is very prone to near misses and bombs with no hard penalties and we’ve seen the Bombers triumph every year; Fino, Cam Davis, Nate Lashley, and Bryson DeChambeau. However, shorter knockers have found themselves in the mix here as well, and are not to be left out in one’s handicap. Most importantly, like most birders, they will get down to playing, wedge playing, and pushing. And in this case, we primarily put Poa annua greens with some bent grass in the mix.
While taking a look at earned strokes: off tee good drives earned drive distance focused on style of play birdies or better gained close to the hole from 75 to 150 yards the majority of approach shots will come from this distance.
For related courses, I’ve considered Port Royal, where they play the Bermuda Championships, Silverado, where they play Fortinet, TPC Craig Ranch (home of Byron Nelson), and Memorial Park, where for the past few years they’ve played the Houston Open. We have Ross designs on a tour in Eastlake and Sedgefield, and another in Oak Hill that hosted the PGA Championship in May. But I don’t feel these settings are particularly similar to the Detroit Golf Club. In and around the greens there may be some kinship with Ross’ signature Tour areas, but other than that I don’t think there is enough overlap in claims to find a parallel or an advantage.
To win the Rocket Mortgage Classic (and to finish in the top 20)
Hideki Matsuyama (20-1)
Matsuyama is probably the best in this field in the short iron and dowel game of the distances that we are focusing on. Over the last 36 rounds, he’s ranked 9th in Hole Proximity from 75-100 yards, 12th at 100-125, and 14th at 125-150 yards. It ranks #2 in SG Approach and #12 in Birdies or Better Gained. He has finished 21st and 13th here in Detroit in the past and at the corporate courses he has had 2nd-place finishes in Houston, 3rd-place finishes in Napa, and a 3rd-place finish at TPC Craig Ranch.
Stefan Jaeger (64-1)
Jaeger fits the mold of the bombers we’ve seen have success here in the past and is very strong across the board in all the stats I considered this week. He’s 33rd in driving distance and 25th in SG Off the Tee over the last 36 rounds. He is also ranked 36th in SG approach and 28th in Birdies or Better Gained. He finished fifth here in Detroit last year, also had a top 10 in Houston, a top 20 in Bermuda and had an 11th-place finish in Byron Nelson.
Alex Smalley (64-1)
Smalley has come out of the Travelers’ Top 10 and also has three additional Top 25 finishes in his last six starts. Over the last 36 runs, he’s ranked 17th in the field for SG Off the Tee and 14th for SG approach. He seems to thrive on easy golf courses, ranking 6th in the field on such courses over the last 36 rounds. He finished 4th and 15th in Houston and had 11th and 12th in Bermuda.
Aaron Ray (64-1)
Like Smalley, Rai has also been in fine form, finishing 12th, 3rd and 4th in three of his last four starts. He is a highly efficient tee to the green, ranking 4th for good earned drives, 14th for SG Off the Tee, 6th for SG approaches over the last 36 innings – and 17th for Birdies or better earned. It is also eighth in the field for Hole Proximity from 125 to 150 yards. In his young career on the PGA Tour, the Englishman has finished 7th and 19th in Houston.
Chris Kirk (69-1)
After winning the Honda Classic in February, Kirk only lost one cut in his next eight starts, but has since missed the cut in his last three starts – so maybe we’re getting an exaggerated number here given his recent form. Here in Detroit, Kirk is 17th, 12th and 21st. He also finished 8th in the Silverado at Napa. Despite the recent mishaps, he’s still 38th in the field for SG approach over the last 36 rounds – and I love what he’s doing with the short iron and wedge play, ranking second in the field for Hole Proximity from 75-100 yards, The third is from 100-125, and the number 1 is from 125-150 yards.
Ryan Palmer (111-1)
Palmer missed four consecutive cuts in March and April, but has since changed it up with a career-best 35 finish and top 10, which came at Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch in May—where he also finished fifth in 2022. 36 rounds, he ranked 21st in This field for SG Off the Tee and 22 for good earned drives. He is also No. 11 in SG approach, No. 21 in Birdies or Better Gained, and No. 16 in Hole Proximity from 75 to 100 yards. Over the last 36 runs on the easy courses, Palmer has ranked 20th in the field.
Full Head-to-Head Tournament Matches (35-29-3 YTD)
Alex Smalley (-105) on top of Taylor Moore
Chris Kirk (+100) over Ludwig Aberg
Whom Chirp users think will win