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Welcome to the PGA Tour’s weekly gambling advice column, featuring picks from GOLF.com’s forecasting expert, Brady Cannon. Veteran golf fan and commentator, Kannon is the host of HeatStrokes Podcast. You can follow him on Twitter at @employeeAnd you can read below to see his favorite plays at the Genesis Scottish Open, which kicks off Thursday at the Renaissance Club, in North Berwick, Scotland. Keep scrolling through Kannon’s picks, and you’ll also see data from Chirp, Free to play mobile platform It features a range of games with attractive prizes, giving fans all kinds of ways to get in on the action without risking any money.
For years, tour professionals have traveled abroad to play in the Scottish Open, seeking to fine-tune their ties game ahead of the Open. For the second consecutive season, what is now the Genesis Scottish Open is part of the Official Tour schedule as a joint event between DP World and the PGA Tour. The field has never been better. Only three players outside the top 12 of the Official World Golf Ranking will be absent this week: Brooks Koepka, Cameron Smith and John Rahm.
The Renaissance Club, which has hosted the past four editions of this tournament, is a Tom Doak design that plays an average of 70 and runs just over 7,200 yards. The course is similar to links, but not technically links. It has a few coastal holes, but there are also some that weave into the wooded areas of what used to be an ancient pine forest, with typically American-style rough bordering the fairways. The fairways are relatively narrow and the green spaces are quite large – and rolling relatively slowly. The course also features dungeons, like the ones we’re used to seeing on links courses.
When the weather cooperates, the course plays firmly and bouncyly and allows for ground game. But this week the forecast calls for a little rain, along with fairly typical winds in the 15 mph range, which could lead to soft conditions – something we’ve seen on the PGA Tour over the past three weeks. Much of this championship will come down to the weather. Last year, Xander Schauffele managed just seven points. With benign conditions in 2021 and 2019, the winning results were 18-under and 22-under respectively.
The length of the tee is an advantage in the Renaissance club, as it is in the long iron play. Of the 10 par-4s, most measure more than 450 yards. Three of the five par-3s run at 200 yards.
In the skill-set department, I leaned heavily this week, as I often do, on learned strokes: approach. I also looked at the strokes earned: off the tee and around the green. I looked at Scrambling, Birdies, or better earned, and earned strokes: Par 4s 450-500 yards, avoid the 3-Putt, because that’s going to matter on those huge lift surfaces.
For related courses, I have considered two Doak renovation projects: St. I also looked at the PGA National (Honda Classic), Riviera (Genesis Invitational) and Los Angeles Country Club, where Windham Clark won the US Open last month.
For winning the Genesis Scottish Open (and for finishing in the top 20)
Tommy Fleetwood (25-1)
Fleetwood finished fifth at the US Open last month in Los Angeles. He also has a good history in both the Riviera and the Honda Classic. He ranks highly in the field in all stats, especially around greens. Fleetwood came agonizingly close this season to winning for the first time on American soil. This week, I’m betting on another win for him in the UK.
Shane Lowry (40-1)
Lowry is one of the best wind links and players in the world. He knows this kind of golf and this kind of terrain. He finished 10th last season in Canada at St. George’s Golf and Country Club, a re-Doc. Lowry’s situation has been horrible this season, but this week has brought him back to the kind of surfaces he grew up on. As we’ve seen over the years, slow wear on golf courses often negates the impact of putting on your bottom line. We’ve seen bad putters thrive on greens like this and excellent putters struggle. It’s just not the kind of surface one has to be a flat-stick magician on and that should bode well for Laurie. Over the last 36 innings, he’s ranked 26th in the field for SG Off the Tee and 11th for SG Approach. Lowery has also had tremendous success at the Honda Classic.
Justin Rose (52-1)
Over the course of his distinguished career, Rose has achieved success at the PGA National, at the Riviera and finished fourth last year at the Canadian Open in St. George. Of course, he was a winner earlier this season at Pebble Beach and now with more of an eye on the Ryder Cup – and golf heading across the pond for a few weeks – it seems like an opportune time for Rose to shine again. Over the past 36 rounds, Rose has ranked fifth in the field for SG Approach and ninth in par-4s between 450-500 yards.
Adam Scott (60-1)
Scott has been quietly having a solid season. Over 30 days in May and June, it finished in the top ten in three out of four weeks on tour. He’s won twice on the Riviera, once on a Honda, and has always been a great player in the links – with more than one close call in the Open Championship. If he can call his iron play this week, he should be able to run.
Gary Woodland (115-1)
Woodland is one of the best places in the world off the tee and long iron. The short game is where it’s lacking, but we’ve talked about how much it can be mitigated on these types of greens. Over the last 36 rounds, he’s ranked 8th in the field for SG Off the Tee, 16th for SG Approach, 35th on par-4s between 450-500 yards and 24th in Birdies or Better Gained. Woodland finished in the top ten at Riviera earlier in the season and has finished eighth at the Honda Classic four times.
Lee Hodges (300-1)
Hodges is really our tall bomb for the week. He is very effective off the tee and is a strong long iron player. Over the last 36 innings, he’s been 31st in the field for SG Off the Tee and 7th in par-4s 450-500 yards. He is also second in the field to SG Putting on slow greens. He had 14th and 9th place finishes at the Honda Classic and was 18th earlier this season at the Riviera. He’s elusive for sure, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him loitering in this top 20 neighborhood.
Full Head-to-Head Tournament Matches (38-31-4 YTD)
Shane Lowry (+100) on Jordan Spieth
Justin Rose (-120) on Justin Thomas
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