Orlando Ramirez/Getty Images
Welcome to the PGA Tour’s weekly gambling advice column, featuring picks from GOLF.com’s forecasting expert, Brady Cannon. Veteran golf fan and commentator, Kannon is the host of HeatStrokes Podcast. You can follow him on Twitter at @tweet, and you can read below to see his favorite plays at the Mexico Open, which kicks off Thursday at Vedanta Vallarta, in Puerto Vallarta. Keep scrolling through Kannon’s picks, and you’ll also see data from Chirp, Free to play mobile platform It features a range of games with attractive prizes, giving fans all kinds of ways to get in on the action without risking any money.
Vedanta’s Mexican Open, formerly known as the Mexico Open, dates back to 1944, but this is only the second year it has been part of the PGA Tour schedule. John Rahm won it last year on the same course we’ll see this week: Vidanta Vallarta, a resort property less than a mile off the coast between Nuevo and Puerto Vallarta, Mexico. Ram’s four-day tally was less than 17.
Vidanta is a Greg Norman design, and like Norman’s coastal trail, El Camaleon in the Riviera Maya, where they played the World Wide Technologies Championship in Mayakoba, Vidanta features paspalum, a type of sticky, spongy grass a bit like poa annua. The difference is that Vidanta is 400 yards longer than El Camaleon.
Unlike the El Camaleon, driving precision is not a factor in the Vidanta. At 7,456 yards, par 71 play, the hurlers serve.. The fairways are particularly wide with very little in the rough. Of note for our handicap this week is that at last year’s Mexican Open, seven of the top 10 finishers were ranked in the top 16 in the driving distance field that week.
The golf course runs along the Amica River, and is water-played to 14 holes. The greens are undulating and well protected by sandy bunkers. Given the coastal location, players should expect to encounter strong winds in the afternoon. Last year, gusts later in the day were top 30 mph. It’s also interesting to note, and factor in handicap, that last year more than 40 percent of the approach shots on this long course came from over 200 yards.
As far as golf courses are concerned, this week I took into account the scores of players at Corales Puntacana, Sanderson Farms (Jackson Country Club) and at Torrey Pines, where they held the Farmers Insurance Open.
Only three of OWGR’s top 50 players are here this week. World No. 1 John Ramm returned to defend his title. World No. 16 Tony Finau is here for the second season in a row and after that we get to world No. 50, where we find Alex Noreen. As for the star power, it’s the thinnest field of the season so far. That will change next week as we head to Charlotte, NC for the Wells Fargo Championship — but it’s understandable that many of the big names opted out of the extra travel this week. However, from the convenience of our weekly column, we’ll gladly take a stab at the stakes.
So, a long and wide coastal design by Norman, with water, jungle, native grasses, sand and wind. Who is best suited to the bill?
To win the All-Mexico Open (and to finish in the top 20)
It was a hard pill to swallow last week when we had Team Windham Clark/Bauhausler and Songjay M/Keith Mitchell finishing first and second before the final round on Sunday in New Orleans – but we came away empty-handed. Well, not quite, as we all did from our three picks for the Top-20 finish and won the head-to-head game too.
Wyndham Clark (20-1)
We’re going back to the well with Clark this week. He’s certainly a bomber, ranking 11th in the Tour in driving distance. He is 8th in the field over the last 36 rounds, 28th in SG Off the Tee and 2nd in SG approach. He also played well in the associated courses, finishing 6th not long ago in Corales. He had a 17th-place finish at Sanderson Farms and had three finishes inside the Top 40 at Torrey Pines. Clark is quietly having a stellar season, with five top-10 finishes, including three top-6 finishes in his last four starts. He almost got his first win on the PGA Tour last week – he may have turned this week.
Will Gordon (66-1)
Gordon has also had strong results in the related courses and has finished 21st at Torrey Pines. He, too, hit it off the tee, ranking 9th in the field over the last 36 runs in driving distance and 14th in SG Off the Tee. Gordon also sits 16th in the last 36 Proximity to the Hole from over 200 yards.
Luke List (66-1)
The bomber theme continues with List, who over the last 36 rounds has been second in the field to SG Off the Tee, sixth for driving distance and sixth in Hole Proximity from over 200 yards. He has an 8th-place finish at Corrales, a 17th-2nd at Sanderson Farms, and a win last year at Torrey Pines, where he has performed well on several occasions, including a 25th-place finish in his title defense this year.
Joseph Bramlett (70-1)
Bramlett comes off a respectable finish in New Orleans last week, where he tied for 26th after teaming up three of the four rounds in the 60s. Over the last 36 rounds, he’s ranked 12th in the field for SG approach, 20th in driving distance and 28th in Hole Proximity from over 200 yards. In his career, he has had top 15 finishes at both Corales and Torrey Pines.
Lanto Griffin (135-1)
Griffin would be the shortest hitter in our picks but still churned it out well above the innings average and ranked 43rd in the field over SG Off the Tee’s last 36 innings. He’s 21st in SG approaches and 29th in Birdies or better earned. He finished 11th at Sanderson Farms and did well at Torrey Pines with 7th-place finishes and the 31st-twelfth of his career. He also recently finished 15th at another Norman course, TPC San Antonio at the Valero Texas Open. 135-1 is quite a number for a guy who ranks so high in this softening field. I saw Griffin’s win streak this week as low as 66-1.
Full tournament head-to-head matches (23-13-2 since the beginning of the year)
Windham Clark (+165) over Tony Finau
Byung Hun An (+100) over Bo Hossler
Whom Chirp users think will win
Jon Rahm – 69%
Tony Fino – 18.05%
Gary Woodland – 3%
Download Chirp Golf for free for a chance to win amazing prizes.