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Welcome to the PGA Tour’s weekly gambling advice column, featuring picks from GOLF.com’s forecasting expert, Brady Cannon. Veteran golf fan and commentator, Kannon is the host of HeatStrokes Podcast. You can follow him on Twitter at @employee, and you can read below to see his favorite plays at the RBC Canadian Open, which kicks off Thursday at Oakdale Golf & Country Club in Toronto. Keep scrolling through Kannon’s picks, and you’ll also see data from Chirp, Free to play mobile platform It features a range of games with attractive prizes, giving fans all kinds of ways to get in on the action without risking any money.
The RBC Canadian Open falls into an unfortunate hole in the PGA Tour schedule, between a high-profile event and a Grand Championship. But 10 of the top 30 players in the Official World Golf Ranking have made the trek north of the border to Oakdale Golf & Country Club in Toronto.
The Canadian Open is the fourth oldest event on the PGA Tour. But this will be the first time in 117 years that the event has been held at Oakdale, a 27-hole facility designed by Stanley Thompson and Robbie Robinson. A combination of three nines will be used this week to form an 18-hole, par-72 test that can be adjusted anywhere from 7,200 to 7,400 yards. Like many courses on the Canadian Open Course, Oakdale is a parkland-style layout, tree-lined. The fairways are of medium width, bordered by a thick bottom. The greens are a bentgrass-boa anoa mix and are smaller than average in size.
Rory McIlroy is the two-time defending champion, having won in 2019 and 2022. In 2020 and 2021 the event was canceled due to Covid. McIlroy won in 2019 at Hamilton Golf & Country Club and at the St.
Since this is our first look at Oakdale, identifying the relevant skill sets on this course takes more guess work than usual. But I dug through the numbers to come up with what I think is a reliable equation. Please note, though, that I’m mitigating the stakes this week, as I often do when new tournaments, new tournaments, or new formats are introduced in the Tour.
Let’s start with Strokes Gained: Approach, as this is a crucial component of any tournament and any tournament. I’m a bit better driving accuracy this week over driving distance, but I’m going to split the difference and use good earned drives. I think the golf course will score low, so I’m keeping Birdies or Better in mind. With smaller greens and thicker roughs, I bet the strokes are earned: Around the green is going to be important this week. And finally, when looking at golf course yardage, I think the majority of approach shots will fall between 75 and 150 yards.
For similar courses, last year’s site, St. George’s, fits the bill. I’ve also considered Glen Abby, another host tournament at the Canadian Open. I took a look at the Colonial Country Club, home of the Charles Schwab Challenge, Pebble Beach, the TPC Craig Ranch, and the courses used for American Express in La Quinta, California. All of these courses either have tree-lined fairways and require spot shots or small greens, or both, making them favorable to the Bird Festival.
To win the RBC Canadian Open (and to finish in the top 20)
I went with two favorites to win this week and then three long bombs by triple digits.
Terrell Hatton (13-1)
Hatton ranks 16th on the OWGR, but he’s been having one of the best seasons of anyone on the Tour. He’s second on the wagering board this week, behind McIlroy. He was fifth earlier this year at TPC Craig Ranch, eighth recently at Colonial, and has had five top 10s this season, along with two top 15s, and one top 20. Over the last 36 runs, he’s finished fourth in the This field for two approaches to SG, second for good drives earned, and third for Birdies or better.
Justin Rose (23-1)
Like Hatton, Rose has been having an excellent season. He previously won at Colonial, won at Pebble Beach this year, and finished fourth at the Canadian Open last year. Over the past 36 innings, he’s ranked second in the field for SG approaches, 24th for SG Around the Green, ninth in good earned drives, and ninth for birdies or better. With his only major being the US Open and that he will be called up next week, I have to believe Rose will be called this week, looking to peak his game at the right time.
Brendon Todd (100-1)
Todd’s strength is the short game. He leads in the field for SG Around the Green and in Hole Proximity from 75 to 100 yards over the last 36 rounds. He also leads the field on SG Putting on Bent/Poa greens. He finished 13th in Canada last year and had top 10 finishes in American Express, Colonial and Pebble Beach.
Mark Hubbard (100-1)
This could be Hubbard’s best season ever in the Tour. He finished 20th at Pebble Beach and ninth at the Charles Schwab Challenge. He was a top 30 against a high field at the Wells Fargo tournament and an 11 against another high field at Harbor Town. Over the past 36 innings, he’s ranked 6th in the field for SG approaches, 16th for good earned drives, and 24th for birdies or better.
Nate Lashley (150-1)
Right behind Hubbard, Lashley ranks 7th in the field for SG approaches over the last 36 innings, and just ahead of him – 13th in Good Drives Gained and 21st in Birdies or Better. He has two top 25 finishes at TPC Craig Ranch, a top 15 finish at American Express, and he finished fifth at Pebble Beach. In two high-profile events this season, he finished 20th at the Genesis Invitational, and led 36 holes at the Wells Fargo Championship before finishing 27th.
Full Head-to-Head Tournament Matches (30-25-3 YTD)
Nate Lashley (+110) on Dylan Wu
Brendon Todd (+110) on Michael Kim
Whom Chirp users think will win
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