The Leafs are set to enter a crucial Game 3 with the task at hand: either win to catch up in the series or fall behind 3-0. Given how rarely teams succeed in the reverse sweep, tonight’s game is unequivocally a must-win for the team that got its first taste of the second round in nearly two decades.
Now that doesn’t mean there isn’t a chance the Leafs can get a win on the road given their strong performance in the previous round. But with so many self-inflicted wounds and Matthew Kness not being available for the rest of the series, this won’t be an easy task.
While it was very disappointing to see the foliage in this position given its presence 36 high risk opportunities And Sergey Bobrovsky Save five goals more than expected Over the first two games, they got a lot of things right that would give fans solace because they could turn the tide back in South Florida’s favor. I think it all comes down to a few simple tweaks that can make a huge difference in preventing a team from prematurely putting their backs to the wall.
Here are three ways the Leafs can pick up their series against the Panthers starting with tonight’s game.
1. Make Bobrovsky uncomfortable
You might think to yourself that the Leafs have already done that given how many scoring chances they’ve had over two games as I mentioned earlier. However, I think the Leafs can do a lot to make Bobrovsky earn every save and tire the Panthers defense.
A few minutes into tracking Game 1. The Leafs couldn’t get any of those sequences going against Tampa, with the Lightning good at exploiting mid-ice. A forced forward spin at the wall next to the blueline results in an instant goal opportunity. pic.twitter.com/f0RDegrOUQ
– Cam Sharon (@camcharronyvr) May 4, 2023
This sequence above is a good example of what Leafs does well and where they can improve. Here, the Leafs put heavy pressure on the forward check and force the Panthers to turn the puck and extend their offensive zone time. This results in Ryan O’Reilly getting some open space to strike the ball, which Bobrovsky coolly clears.
Since there is no passing lane available, perhaps O’Reilly can shoot the puck a little lower so the potential bounce is available to himself. Bobrovsky’s lateral movement on all four goals the Leafs have scored so far has been slow and a great way to get him swimming is to create a potential puck that he can’t reach right away. Alex Kerfoot goal in the second match A prime example of this work to perfection.
While we’re on the topic of Game 2, there were plenty of moments where the Leafs made it easier for Panthers defenders to get in the way of blocking a shot. This is especially evident for long-range shots, which aren’t as effective from strategy as they were in the first round against Lightning. Getting as many scoring opportunities as possible within a few feet of the net will go a long way in ensuring that moments like this are rare and not a common trend.
Matthews intercepted the pass from between his legs and then deflected it back to McCabe
Tkachuk saves pic.twitter.com/fk0EL7dYT2
– Omar (@TicTacTOmar) May 5, 2023
There is no doubt that Bobrovsky is a great goalkeeper and he is playing some of his best hockey right now. But the Leafs play into making Bobrovsky so dominant by not making him sweat a bit more when having to save. Making Flordia’s goaltender uncomfortable will do wonders in ensuring the Leafs get more than just two goals in a game.
2. Make use of all the power of plays
Paul Morris can complain all he wants, but his team isn’t well disciplined and that’s why the Leafs had solid game opportunities over the first two games. But with only one goal on man advantage over the first two games, Toronto has yet to truly punish the Panthers for their disorganized style of play with a special teams battle.
Bobrovsky’s powerful play is a major factor in why this happens and he hides a lot of Florida’s shortcomings when a man falls. But Leaves hasn’t done that yet Generate no chances from rebounds or from rushing And that played a role in how they did it Only managed to register once Over a total of 15 rounds in the power game. Toronto needs to make it near impossible for the Panthers to beat pucks and win battles that allow rebound opportunities or play rushes to go for their advantage on the man advantage.
It remains to be seen how many more power plays the Leafs will get, but if the Panthers want to continue playing on the edge physically, expect Toronto to have the advantage the rest of the way. Regardless, they have to make sure they get more out of it because eventually officials will stop blowing the whistle and eventually calls will start going the other way. And with Wes McCauley being one of the referees for tonight’s game, this is something the Leafs will have to take very seriously.
This is where it would be great to see the Leafs’ superstars score on the scoresheet given Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, John Tavares and Morgan Riley all went scoreless in their first two games. Obviously not for lack of trying given the said number of scoring chances the team had, but it is certainly a far cry from how effective they were in the previous round.
The special team battle is always an important component of who wins a series, and so far the Panthers have the advantage due to their penalty kill unit which only allows a goal against the point. The Leafs need to change that, and fast, in order to get back on track.
3. Beat the Panthers at their own game
What made Florida such a fearsome team and got them to this point is their relentless necks. They are an opportunistic team and it is their style of play that works wonders in the playoffs, which is why they have been able to overcome a 3-1 series deficit against the Bruins and how they are enjoying a 2-0 lead at this point. This is not to say that this performance came out of nowhere since this group is one year away from winning the President’s Cup, but their modified approach has been far more effective this time when compared to last season.
The Leafs have certainly managed to keep up with the Panthers somewhat, but Toronto has yet to find an answer to neutralize a mortgage check in Florida. I think the solution is simple: the Leafs need to beat the Panthers at their own game.
Sheldon Keefe needs to order his players to starve the puck and put as much pressure on the puck carrier as the Panthers did. He should also tell them to play the body more than not to break up and make things move in the right direction. And if the play were to develop another way, there would have to be bodies back to make sure Ilya Samsonov has an easier time saving to minimize the damage.
There is no denying that the Panthers have a good group of players, with the likes of Matthew Tkachuk, Brandon Montour, Sam Reinhart, Alexander Barkov and Sam Bennett. But as a collective, the Leafs have a better lineup overall, and playing a higher paced game will do wonders to ensure Florida has a hard time keeping up.
At the end of the day, it all comes down to taking advantage of the chances you get, and the Panthers have been the better team in that regard even in the Super Bowl. If the Leafs want any shot at a comeback in this series, matching Florida’s forward check should help generate more scoring opportunities and possibly more goals.