With the 2023 NFL Draft behind us and teams close to working the field at OTAs and minicamps, let’s get started with the early phase of the quarterback position in fantasy football this season.
Below, I’ll give you a draft of my strategy for the position, including the traits I look for in today’s quarterbacks that lead to proven fantasy production. Plus, I’ll go over some of the storylines to follow in the 2023 season, from Justin Fields’ Chicago upgraded passing game to total volume with Josh Allen on the Bills offense. Quarterback levels are here too, along with some potential fantasy hacks for good measure.
Quarterback draft strategy
Waiting for the position has always been my draft strategy. Sit down, carry a running back and wide receiver before a late touchdown quarterback, one with pocket attributes to produce in the NFL’s planned passing game. But given how we record accelerated productions with back-end players in fantasy, I’m changing my day-to-day drafting philosophy. Yes, I target mobile quarterbacks with enough arm talent to make the throws required in a professional offense. And they go early.
Last season, the top three quarterbacks in fantasy points per game — Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes — were drafted in the first six rounds. They were also among the first six to come off the board. But for those of us who waited, including myself, to pick Tom Brady (QB16 in points per game) or Aaron Rodgers (QB24 in points per game), it means more time handling the waiver wire and using match-based banners. Not cool there.
So, this season, I’m using a new plan: The 25-25 Club. Quarterbacks who rush for 25 yards and attempt 25 passes per game. Over the past four seasons, this has been done 17 times. During that span, eight of those quarterbacks finished as the top five scorers in terms of points per game, with 15 of the 17 finishing 11th or better.
Looking at my current broker ratings, they are loaded with moving brokers. In addition to Mahomes, Allen, and Hurts at the top, Lamar Jackson is here. Justin Fields, Daniel Jones, and Trevor Lawrence, too. The rush to produce in this position is gold in fantasy football. Designed load and scramble attempts. And with enough pitching volume on a weekly basis, it’s time to draft two quarterbacks early if you want to win your fantasy league.
The most important events of 2023
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Let’s start in Chicago with Justin Fields, who finished first in QB6 in the fantasy world last season. Fields has game-changing power as a ball carrier. He rushed for 1,143 yards on 22, but the addition of wide receiver DJ Moore would boost his fielding passing totals. Midfield goals and border columns. Fields has a true #1 goal now, giving him a top three.
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Russell Wilson In Denver with new coach Sean Payton. The Broncos have upgraded that offensive front. And we know Payton can prepare our midfielders to get the ball out with rhythm and timing. Will Wilson – a very instinctive pitcher – produce QB1 numbers again? He finished the season with QB18 in points per game.
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Lamar Jackson Now he has a detailed track runner who can make himself available in Odell Beckham Jr. to pair with tight end Mark Andrews (and the team also drafted WR Zay Flowers). The Ravens will also feature a new system under coordinator Todd Monken, who can plan Lamar on a passing game, as well as stands designed for the Ravens’ quarterback.
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Do bills reduce the rush size for Josh Allen this chapter? In the most quarterback-based offense in the NFL, Allen had 567 pass attempts last season, to go along with his other 124 carries on the ground. The addition of Damien Harris—an early runner with north/south traits—could lighten the burden on Allen in the rushing department.
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We’ve seen some veteran players move this off-season, though Aaron Rodgers being traded on the planes and Derek Carr Signature in New Orleans. While both QB2s will be in my rankings, the newcomers should bump into the fantasy profiles of wide receivers Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave. There is a real positive trend there.
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Who is the starter in san francisco? In one of the NFL’s most exciting passing games under the direction of Kyle Shanahan – with top-level catches and runs – Trey Lance, Brock Purdy or Sam Darnold could emerge as viable fantasy starters.
Breaking down the seams of a fantasy QB
I see 10 quarterbacks to target in the top two tiers of fantasy drafts. Top level as expected – Mahomes, Allen and Hurts – Quarterbacks with explosive offense, versatile systems and the ability to create rushing totals in and out of the playcall structure. They will go in the first five rounds of fantasy drafts.
In my second grade, where I expect to see midfield running on quarterbacks, it starts with Joe Burrow due to his receiving goals at Cincinnati, as well as his pocket movement and ability to escape pressure. Lamar Jackson is next in line at this level, followed by Justin Fields – two dynamic players at the position with potential to climb into the top three if the passing game picks up. Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence, Daniel Jones and Dak Prescott pursue the role of quarterbacks who can produce from the pocket and use their legs to create second reaction plays or designed carries.
The third layer can get a little cloudy. Deshaun Watson has QB1 potential in his second season with the Browns. We know Kirk Cousins can produce breakout games, but the lack of consistent week-to-week production keeps him at that level. Tua Tagovailoa is in the mix, with Rodgers, Wilson, Jared Goff and Carr. These are QB2s with potential starts based on weekly matchups.
Potential breakthroughs…and fears
I see three quarterbacks with potential to break through. Lawrence’s growth last season in offense by Doug Pederson — finishing as a QB7 champion — demonstrated his ability to read it quickly and throw with timing and positioning. Plus, we know he can be on the edges as a runner. With Herbert, I see Chargers and new coordinator Kellen Moore open up the playbook with more vertical scrolling elements and situational plays designed to use Herbert’s physical tools. I already mentioned Watson’s QB1 potential, so let’s include him here on Year 2 of Kevin Stefanski’s offense. We know he can work in/out of the pocket, and has the movement attributes to pick up quick totals. The Browns added another touchdown reception in the trade to Elijah Moore as well.
The concerns started with Jones, even as a Tier 2 rookie. I love the offensive system under New York’s Brian DaPaul. The Giants added tight end Darren Waller. It could be a stretcher/play target for Jones here. But will we see QB1 production week to week? Jones had five games with 20 or more fantasy points last season, but also six marginal games with less than 15 fantasy points. I have to mention the injuries with Tua, as well as his lack of rush production (24 carries, 70 yards in the ’22). And even with Rodgers playing in a familiar system under New York coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, he’s not a priority target for me in fantasy drafts because of his playing style at this point in his career, which has severely limited his rushing totals.