When it is increasingly argued, year after year, how unwise it is for an NFL first-round draft pick to eliminate a running back, we as fantasy football managers sometimes develop an irrational fear of spending such a lofty selection on a rookie back in Our own drafts.
But when a generational talent comes along like Bijan Robinson, we just need to indulge.
You may have noticed that we rated Robinson as an obvious first-round fantasy football pick. It’s a generous assessment, but he’s not blindly lost considering his impressive skill set, prospect role and status as the 8th overall pick from this year’s draft, the closest running back in five years and only the eighth time in the past 15 drafts a rusher has been selected. Among the top 10 players in the NFL Draft.
Robinson brings one of the most complete packages any rookie has ever had at the time of his NFL debut. In three seasons for the Texas Longhorns, he totaled 4,215 yards from scrimmage and 41 touchdowns, averaging 6.3 yards per rush. Pro Football Focus credited him with a single-season record 104 missed tackles forced in 2022. Robinson has it all: size, speed, agility, elite cutting in the receiving game and is great at making quick cuts on runs. The Atlanta Falcons selected him with the clear intent of making it their start, every running back from day one, regardless of the presence of Tyler Allgeier. Don’t make an investment in draft picking like this and then limit a player’s chance.
Even more encouraging is that history supports Robinson’s fictional first-round candidacy and fully supports the potential for that level of impact.
In the past 10 seasons, seven draftees have been selected in the first round of the NFL Draft and the first 35 draft picks (and first 15 draft picks) averaged in ESPN fantasy drafts during their rookie seasons. These criteria have been carefully chosen to reflect Robinson’s trajectory entering 2023—that of a highly regarded prospect drafted by a team immediately given the opportunity to lead his backfield.
Five of those seven contestants submitted fantasy score totals that ranked higher in the position than their ADP ranking. The group was named ninth-ranked in average among linebackers (9.4, to be exact) and finished tenth in average (9.7) in fantasy points. Three of them, Saquon Barkley (385.8) in 2018, Ezekiel Elliott (325.4) in 2016 and Nagee Harris (300.7) in 2021, have crossed the 300-point threshold, one that has been reached by only 14 rookies in history and is generally considered a benchmark for putting Position “Elite”. In addition, four of those six rookies totaled over 300 touches as rookies, with a combined average of 296.7, cementing their leading man status.
Here is the full set:
Barkley and Elliott were similarly declared first-round picks, each going sixth in the NFL Draft, and both serve as perfect comparison points for Robinson. Indeed, Barkley may be the ideal catcher, particularly in terms of receiving ability, and it is important to note that some scouts have praised Robinson for either a better quality or prospect at the time of their selections.
Fantasy managers may be reluctant to invest in Robinson after hearing Barkley’s name as a point of reference, recalling instead his injury issues in the 2019-21 season, but it must be emphasized that Barkley has been exceptional as a starter. Barkley finished just 6.4 PPR fantasy points shy of Eric Dickerson’s rookie record and his 385.8 points from that season rank 19th among rushers in history. He managed 352 touches, a number Robinson certainly could reach, and he did it for Eli Manning’s 5-11 New York Giants team in his last full season as a starter. The Giants’ below-average offense that season didn’t hinder Barkley’s fantasy prospects, just as the 2023 Falcons offense shouldn’t be much of a hindrance to Robinson.
Clyde Edwards-Hellier is the most notable disappointment on the list. He got off to a good start, posting a 19.8 PPR in Week 1 of 2020 and was 11th among RBs in scoring during Week 6, only to cool off after that. His season would end after 13 games due to groin and ankle injuries. But from a scouting standpoint, Edwards-Helaire wasn’t the prospect to be Robinson, as he lacked Robinson’s size and faced questions about his ability in short-range and goal-line situations.
Josh Jacobs was hardly disappointed that he might appear from a quick glance at the chart. A shoulder injury cut his rookie season three games short, but through 15 weeks that season, he was 12th in fantasy points among running backs and was on pace to be profitable. Jacobs also got into the NFL not as highly rated as Robinson, and wasn’t drafted in fantasy as early as Robinson.
Robinson may, in fact, be heading for the highest ADP by any rookie running back this century, beating Barkley’s and Ezekiel Elliott’s No. 6 overall. It’s not an absurd idea for him to be named among the top five picks, considering that other names from that group include two players with injury histories (Christian McCaffrey and Barkley) and one coming off a disappointing game, also affected by injury in 2022 (Jonathan). Taylor). In an era when most first-round runs come with some risks, Robinson as a brand new player is no greater risk than any of his position brethren.
So, if you’re still sweating at the prospect of spending that crucial first-round pick on Robinson, after hearing all that chatter at the NFL level…don’t! History – along with Robinson’s skill set and prospective role – certainly backs up his value.