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“Golf is looking for someone who puts their hand up and tries. I want to be the guy who keeps going and wins majors and wins majors regularly.” – Rory McIlroy, after winning the 2014 Open Championship, Via The New York Times
This, as they say, was not good.
Of course, at the time McIlroy had every reason to believe he would win a few of golf’s biggest tournaments. The 2014 Open Championship, where he led by seven at one point in the final round before winning by two, was his third major victory, and the 25-year-old went on to win his fourth just a month later, at the PGA Championship. But then?
Close calls. heartbreak. nothing else.
There is still hope. At least Vegas thinks you do – McIlroy is the betting favorite at this week’s Open Championship, at Royal Liverpool. The reasons are also clear. Notably, the firepower is there (he’s in the top 20 this season on the PGA Tour in five of the six Strokes Gained classes), and it’s not like he hasn’t won at all.
Since the 2014 PGA, he has 16 victories on the PGA Tour, including last week, at the Scottish Open. It comes with momentum.
“It’s good to have the verification,” McIlroy said Sunday. Endorsement; it’s great to have a top 5, a top 10, but it’s much nicer to head away with a cup on a Sunday afternoon.
“It’s a great shot of confidence. … Having something fresh in my memory, if I hope to find myself in a similar position next week where I have the chance to win nine holes, I can certainly count on what I’ve done here today; that I can get myself into the mix again.”
There’s more, too.
McIlroy’s quote came at the beginning of this story at Royal Liverpool.
Where he plays again this week.
With that said, every member of our staff picked a winner and a long shot. The hope is, of course, that we’ll help you with your weekly choices, whether it’s a low-stakes desk fantasy league, or big (legal!) bets with a sportsbook.
to our choices.
An expert chooses the 2023 Open Championship to win, and sleeps to watch
Ryan Barath
To win: Rory McIlroy +750. I’ve done it before, and I’m ready to do it again and put all my stock into Rory’s. He tends to get hot in the summer, and I feel like the time spent on the links courses might give him an extra jolt to get him through the line. Also, considering he’s won Royal Liverpool before, how could I not pick him?
Sleeper selection: Padraig Harrington +12,500. As a former champion, he knows how to handle the tough conditions that golf can associate with, and even as a PGA Tour Champion, he continues to show up at the big events. As most people have become aware by this point, Harrington is no slouch in the pace and driving distance department, and distance is always a skill that gets rewarded on challenging courses. With a potential Ryder Cup spot on the line, I expect Padraig to be excited this week at Hoylake.
Alan Pastel
To win: Scotty Sieffler +900. Boring choice? maybe. But how could you not love his chances after seven consecutive top-five finishes, including the Scotsman’s T3? Here’s another fun stat: If Scheffler can finish 12th or better at Hoylake (pretty much a lock), he’ll have finished 12th in his 20th consecutive start. amazing run.
Sleeper selection: Padraig Harrington +12,500. The two-time Claret Jug winner has been blazing on the senior circuit, has slammed the ball in the past two home runs and has been hitting the ball as well as he has during any point in his career. Heck, I’m not sure if he qualifies as a sleeper!
Josh Berhau
To win: Rory McIlroy +750. I’ve flown this week with Rory all year, for obvious reasons. He’s been playing well lately, plus, with everything that’s happened over the past month – and with his close call in last year’s tournament – this just seems like his week. But storybook endings are easier said than done.
Sleeper selection: Adam Scott +6600. He tied for fifth the last time he played here and has had a very strong and consistent season. His missed cut at the US Open was his only of the year at 14 games. These are good odds for a guy who can easily hang around the first page of the leaderboard on a weekend.
James Colgan
To win: Min Woo Lee, +5,000. Tiger Woods (famous) won the Royal Liverpool title in 2006 without ever swinging a driver. So why would a player with very long odds and no PGA Tour win as an Open Championship winner? I will simply answer: Have you ever seen Min Woo hit that iron?
Sleeper selection: Sheamus Power +15,000. My heart says Matthew Jordan of Liverpool, but my head says Seamus Power might be better off the money at the same odds.
Dylan Dieter
To win: Scotty Scheffler would hold the 54-hole lead, Tyrell Hutton (+2800) would chase him midway through the final round, and Xander Schauffele (+2200) would come loose at the end, getting me out of years of accumulated debt in the process.
Sleeper selection: Corey Conners (+10,000). Look at the leaderboards from ’06 and ’14, and look at Strokes earned at the end of the year: Tee-to-Green stats. This is a flusher cycle. Conners played reasonably well in two openings. I love him in this number.
Nick Demingo
To win: Jordan Spieth +2000. He. She Feel As if Spieth has had a down year, but the reality is that the three-time major champion has six top 10 titles this season – and I think he’s set for a big win. He knows what it takes to play on links courses, with wins at Royal Birkdale at this particular event in 2017, and the 2015 US Open in Chambers Bay. While he may be booming or busting this week, I’m all for trying it to make it happen.
Sleeper selection: Nikolai Hoggard +15,000. A last-minute addition to the Open, Hojgaard qualified by finishing sixth at last week’s Scottish Open. You know what that tells me? Not only is he knowledgeable about conditions in the UK, but he’s cool and calm under pressure. Luckily I’ll put the money on the dane and laugh all the way to the bank come Sunday evening.
Jack Hirsch
To win: Rory McIlroy +750. I wouldn’t choose Rory. I wouldn’t choose Rory. I wouldn’t choose Rory. I wouldn’t choose Rory. Hey who am I kidding? A heart wants what the heart wants. Hoylake is where he won his previous Open Championship. He almost won in Los Angeles. He plays well. I see no reason to choose him against McIlroy.
Sleeper selection: Sahith Theegala +12,500: This pick depends more on the duration of its odds than anything else. Sahith Thigala, 33 in the OWGR and winner of nearly $5 million this year, is much better than going 125-1. He last finished inside the top 10 at Hilton Head in April, but had achieved his first top 10 at the Masters the week before. I say it bounces back big.
Milton exhaled
To win: Tommy Fleetwood +2500. It was Tommy Fleetwood’s comeback year. He has been in the top 20 in five of his past seven starts, has five top 10s on the season and one of the top five finishes at the US Open. His OWGR is 22, but Data Golf has him ranked as the 14th best player in the world at the moment. Why not this week to win big?
Sleeper selection: Denny McCarthy +12,500. Denny McCarthy may not be a household name to casual fans, but he’s been going strong this season. Data Golf ranks him the 13th best player in the world as he is, and he’s riding three top 10s in his past four starts. He’s one of the best putters in the world, and if he can do enough volleying, we could have another unexpected major winner.
Nick Piastowski
To win: My choices are the same as those of the Zephyr above – so I’ll show you two more. Here, let’s go with Tyrell Hatton (+2800). I love hitting the ball. I love the look.
Sleeper selection: Again, I love McCarthy – but I also love Pablo Larrazabelle (+40,000). These are some tall odds for a player who has won twice on the DP World Tour since the end of April.
Tim Riley
To win: Scotty Scheffler +900. The ball is set to start falling. He hits the ball too well this year to not walk away with a big win to get. After the World Open, we will start chasing Scheffler’s Grand Slam in 2024.
Sleeper selection: Keegan Bradley +9000. It’s worth putting the money on these odds. Bradley has been a consistent performer all season and his confidence level must be high after winning the Travelers in front of a home crowd.
Braden Reed
To win: Cameron Smith, +1,600. It’s the best putter on the planet, and I think it gives us a repeat winner this year. The flat stick will always be a performer for him, and he’s headed upwards everywhere else with a fourth-place finish in the LACC and a win at LIV London. Tiger also repeated his title the last time the Open Championship was played at St Andrews and Royal Liverpool respectively, and I see Cam following in his footsteps.
Sleeper selection: Denny McCarthy +12,500. On the topic of hot putters, there has never been a hotter putter on the PGA Tour than Denny’s. He’s been knocking on the door for a month and a half now, and while it might be bold to expect a major as his breakthrough, it’s hard not to love his value at that number.
Josh Sens
To win: Rory McIlroy +750. The dry spell in big companies can’t last forever, right? Sure, it can. But she won’t. Rory has been so close so many times that the close calls can’t go on. The drought is finally over, on a track he’s won before.
Sleeper selection: Corey Conners +9000. Part of me wants to say Joost Luiten, but that’s only because I love saying “Joost Luiten.” We know shooting was the only thing that held Connors back. And we know that the Open Championship is the tournament where the game mode mostly takes a lower priority. Those are tall odds for the guy who gets the ball and so is Conners.
Marley Sims
To win: Victor Hofland +2000. His play in the major tournaments has been impressive—tied 7th at the Masters, tied 2nd at the PGA Championship, 19th at the US Open—as has been his win last month at the Jack Nicklaus Memorial Tournament. He is on his way to becoming a household name.
Sleeper selection: Davis Riley +30,000. A pure ball forward, he has found a form of delay, with four consecutive cut-outs. He is sure to win a big prize soon. Why not this week?
Jonathan Wall
To win: Rory McIlroy +750. Outside of Tiger in his prime, I’ve never felt more confident about a key pick: Rory would win in a defeat by Royal Liverpool. He hasn’t finished worse than T9 since the PGA Championship and continues the upward trend. It all comes together at the right time.
Sleeper selection: Billy Horschel +35,000. It’s a dart throw… in the dark. Nothing in Horschel’s recent form screams competitor, but we always see a name on the board in the big ones that we didn’t expect to see. Why not Horschel? He is destined to find his game.
Shawn Zack
To win: Xander Schavelli +2200. It’s time to get on the bandwagon in an official capacity.
Sleeper selection: Owen Ferguson +25,000. He is on the move. He won the R&A Boys Amateur title in Hoylake in 2013. His name is on the big board of champions at RLGC, right between Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy. He deserves a final top 20 bet.