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Welcome to the PGA Tour’s weekly gambling advice column, featuring picks from GOLF.com’s forecasting expert, Brady Cannon. Veteran golf fan and commentator, Kannon is the host of HeatStrokes Podcast. You can follow him on Twitter at @employeeAnd you can read below to see his favorite plays for The Open Championship, which starts on Thursday at Royal Liverpool. Keep scrolling through Kannon’s picks, and you’ll also see data from Chirp, Free to play mobile platform It features a range of games with attractive prizes, giving fans all kinds of ways to get in on the action without risking any money.
If someone asked me what was my favorite major tournament in April, my answer would be the Masters tournaments. Ask me the same question in July, and my answer is always The Open Championship. I’m torn between these two but always equally excited depending on the time of year. Ask my wife the same question, her answer is easy: The Open, because he (Brady) sleeps on the couch for four nights, enjoying a live major golf tournament in our early hours in the States.
This week marks the 151st edition of The Open, and for the third time in 17 years, the claret pitcher will be up for grabs at Royal Liverpool in Hoylake, England. Tiger Woods won this course in 2006 with a score of 18 under. Rory McIlroy won his last major to date at Hoylake in 2014 with a 17-under.
Since McIlroy’s win, the track has been changed by Martin Ebert’s 2020 renovation. Ebert has moved several lane bunkers to accommodate the longer day’s game. He lengthened the track by about 70 yards. He created a new 17th hole – 135-yard par-3 with a small, raised green, featuring run-off areas on all sides, lined with treacherous bunkers.
The tenth hole was also changed from an easy par-5 to a 500-plus-yard par-4. What was once a par-72 scheme will play into a par-71 in 2023. The proposed opening bet line for the 72-hole winning score is 268.5, which means one can choose less than or more than a winning score of 15.5 under par.
Woods famously avoided every bunker in 2006 and only bumped Driver once off the tee. He led the field that week in driving accuracy. McIlroy also used a few drivers off the tee in 2014 but still leads the field in driving distance. The course was firm, fast and dry in 2006 but was much softer in 2014. Looks like we’re going to get the soft version this week with steady rain in the forecast and minimal wind.
With so many underlying problems, I think strategy will be crucial this week. The medium rough isn’t much of a threat but it gets too far and players will find themselves in the knee-deep weed. The course is flat without the sand dunes we see on many beachfront open courses but the fairway bunkers are punishing. There are also home runs out on the 3rd and 18th. Greenside’s dugouts will be difficult and short game creativity will be required. However, as in all holes, the green will be slow to protect balls from rolling if the wind becomes too erratic.
Given all of this, I feel like accuracy off the tee beats distance this week. Mid to long iron play will be important. Different from what we are used to in the US, where long and aggressive play is often rewarded, I think this course will require a more defensive approach. Avoiding trouble will be paramount.
The skill sets I looked at this week were Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, Strokes Gained: Around the Greens, Scramble, Near the Hole from 175-200 yards, Bougie Avoidance, Triple-Hit Avoidance and Strokes Gained on Par-4s measuring 450-500 yards. Most of these metrics will publish PGA Tour play results – and since this week’s Links Test will be different, the focus on stats will likely be reduced. Other factors must be taken into account.
For related courses, I looked at the two previous open courses, Muirfield and Royal Troon; I also looked at Royal Portrush because Ebert also did renovations there. I looked at the Renaissance Club as they have now played the Scottish Open for five consecutive seasons and on the US side, TPC Sawgrass (The Players Championship) and PGA National (Honda Classic). It is interesting to note that at Hoylake in 2006, two of the top five players on the leaderboard won the Players Championship and Jim Furyk finished runner-up. In 2014, four of the top five players on the Player Leaderboard won Players, with Furyk once again in that group.
To win the Open Championship (and to finish in the top 20)
Scotty Scheffler (+750)
I played Scheffler to win outright and also finish 10th. The rest of the players listed below have played for a win and the top 20. We know the story here – if Scheffler can be a regular batsman this week, he should win. He has been in 14 consecutive runs in which he has two or more hits off the tee, five consecutive runs in which he has six or more hits on the close—and finished out of the top five in seven consecutive starts. Since 2015, Scheffler has only played 22 rounds of golf links but during that time he has gained a 1.85 putt putt. Incidentally, he also won the Players Championship earlier this season.
Terrell Hutton (27-1)
I struggled here between Hatton and Xander Schauffele. Not only are they close in terms of price but also in all stats and other handicap angles. Hatton has more experience in the links, with more than 1.7 strokes hitting the field over 113 rounds of golf since 2015. But will the pressure of winning affect him back home? There is no hope. He’s finished fourth before at the Honda Classic, finished second this year in the Players Championship, finished sixth at the Scottish Open and finished fifth at Portrush in 2019, and fifth at Troon in 2016.
Colin Morikawa (30-1)
Like Scheffler and Hatton, Morikawa is also excellent off the tee. He’s ranked fifth in the Tour in driving accuracy and over the past 36 Tours he’s ranked third in the field to SG:Approach. He won the Open Championship for the first time in 2021 at Royal St. George, and in his 20 rounds of golf since 2015, he’s hit a putt on the course. His game was up and down this season, but he came away with a playoff loss at Rocket Mortgage, and in the majors, he finished 10-26-14. I think he’s here again this week.
Justin Rose (60-1)
It is not uncommon for someone in their forties to win the Open Championship. Length is not as important as any of the other disciplines. In fact, five of the previous ten champions were 35 or older. Experience matters. Justin Rose will turn 43 at the end of this month and this will be his 20th tournament. Since 2015, in 66 rounds of golf, he has a 1.66 putt putt. He won at Pebble Beach earlier this year as well as a sixth-place finish at Players. He has finished in the top ten three times at the Honda Classic. He has everything you need to win at Hoylake: accuracy off the tee, iron medium to long game, excellent short game and is probably the best dugout on the field. He’s also been 23rd here at Royal Liverpool in 2014, 22nd at Troon in 2016 and 20th at Portrush in 2019.
Adam Scott (80-1)
Similar to Rose, Scott is an older statesman with plenty of connections in golf and Open Championship experience. Scott will play in his 23rd Open and has five top-10 finishes, including runner-up in 2012. He won the Players Championship and the Honda Classic. He’s 15th in the field over SG’s last 36: Off the Tee and also Par-4s measuring 450-500 yards. Scott finished in the top 10 on this course in both 2006 and 14 and was also 3rd at Muirfield in 2013.
Rickie Fowler (80-1)
No, this number is no longer available. I bet he did before Ricky started his US Open career in June – but I still wouldn’t mind playing him currently between 25 and 30-1. Fowler has a proven track record in links tournaments. He was runner-up to McIlroy at Hoylake again in 2014 and was sixth at Portrush in 2019. He also won the Scottish Open. He won and finished runner-up in both the Players Championship and the Honda Classic. Of course, he just got his first win in nearly 4.5 years at Rocket Mortgage and is playing some of the best golf of his career. Since 2015, in 66 rounds of golf, he has gained 1.58 strokes on the course. Over the last 36 runs, he has been sixth in the field for the SG Approach and second for the SG Around the Green.
Hideki Matsuyama (90-1)
Matsuyama has been hit or miss in the Open Championship his entire career, but that number was high for someone who I think fits this course really well. He finished 39th here in 2014, and of course since then he’s won a Grand Championship. He missed the cut in three British Championships but also has two top 20 finishes and finished sixth at Muirfield in 2013. Three times he has finished in the top ten in players. Over the past 36 rounds, Matsuyama has placed 7th in the field for SG: Approach, 15th for SG: Around the Green, 4th in Hole Proximity from 175-200 yards, 14th from 200+ yards, and 4th in Bogey Avoidance.
Se Woo Kim (165-1)
My real long shot for the week – and apparently it’s not just me as I’ve seen that number drop closer to 125-1. Eight of the last 10 Open Championships have been won earlier in the same season, and Kim won the Sony Open earlier this year. He also has two top 10 player finishes including wins. He’s 12th in the field for SG: Off the Tee over the last 36 rounds, 14th in par-4s at 450-500 yards and 28th in SG: Approach.
Full Head-to-Head Tournament Matches (39-32-4 YTD)
Thorbjorn Olesen (-120) over Rasmus Hojgaard
Justin Rose (+117) over Matt Fitzpatrick
Si Woo Kim (-120) on Sahith Theegala
Xander Schauffele (-140) over Shane Lowry
Whom Chirp users think will win