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Welcome to the PGA Tour’s weekly gambling advice column, featuring picks from GOLF.com’s forecasting expert, Brady Cannon. Veteran golf fan and commentator, Kannon is the host of HeatStrokes Podcast. You can follow him on Twitter at @employee, and you can read below to see his favorite AT&T Byron Nelson plays, which premieres Thursday at TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas. Keep scrolling through Kannon’s picks, and you’ll also see data from Chirp, Free to play mobile platform It features a range of games with attractive prizes, giving fans all kinds of ways to get in on the action without risking any money.
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After the RBC Heritage in Harbor Town, the PGA Tour has been in for a series of tournaments that feature big, long courses – and it continues beyond this week with Oak Hill Country Club hosting the PGA Championship next week. The Mexican Open host Vedanta Vallarta has a length of over 7,500 yards. Quail Hollow Club was just under 7,500 yards; And this week we’re hitting TPC Craig Ranch, a Par 71 that’s over 7,400 yards.
For the third consecutive season, TPC Craig Ranch will host AT&T Byron Nelson – the final game before the second major tournament of the season next week. It’s a Tom Weiskopf design with wide Zoysia grass fairways and large, flat greens. Craig Ranch has played one of the easiest courses on the tour the past two seasons. KH Lee is the two-time defending champion, coming home with scores of 25 and 26 under par, respectively, in 2021 and ’22. The course can extend to 7,414 yards from the tips and will play as par-71 this season after the 12th hole was converted from the shorter par-5 to the longer par-4.
The forecast predicts thunderstorms and winds for all four days with temperatures in the low 80s. Steady winds anywhere from 10-20 mph are expected Thursday through Saturday. This can keep the score low but the rain can lighten the track and bring this back to the bird festival we are used to. The wind should calm down a bit for the final round on Sunday.
It’s a long course, and if the rain eases off, it’ll get even longer. But with fairways that are wide and not too stiff to speak of, even shorter knockers shouldn’t find themselves at a disadvantage. I took a look at Driving Distance and Strokes Earned: Off the Tee this week, but I’ve been focusing more on the approach to strokes gained and near the hole from 175-200 yards and from 200 yards or more. I think this will eventually result in a solid approach/iron long play, scoring 5 points and making a lot of shots.
I also looked at this week’s Birdies or Better Gained Strokes Gained: Putting (Bent grass) and how these players fare on easy spins. Of course, I also took into account interconnected courses – courses with the same designer or similar layouts. With only two years in the books at TPC Craig Ranch, it’s hard to find much crossover success with other courses in the touring rotation. What I landed on are Port Royal Golf Club (Bermuda Championship), Detroit Golf Club (Rocket Mortgage Classic), TBC Summerlin (Shriners Kids Open), TBC Scottsdale (WM Phoenix Open), Vedanta Vallarta (Mexico Open) , and Pebble Beach.
To win at AT&T Byron Nelson (and to finish in the top 20)
Terrell Hatton (14-1)
Hatton has been having a great season and he started on one of our closely linked courses, finishing sixth at TPC Scottsdale for the WM Phoenix Open. Since then, he’s been fourth in Bay Hill, second in the Players Championship, and third last week in Charlotte. Over the last 36 innings, he is sixth in the field for SG Off the Tee, third in SG Approach, fourth in Birdies or Better Gained, and 11th in SG Par-5s.
Jason Day (16-1)
Prior to the Masters, Day could have finished no worse than 19th in 2023. He missed the cut last week at Wells Fargo, a tournament he’s won in the past, so I have a hunch he’ll want to right the ship this week before next week’s PGA Championship, Championship Others won before. Over the past 36 rounds, today is 21st in SG Putting (bending turf), 7th in SG Off the Tee, 16th in SG Off the Tee, 16th in SG Approach and 5th in Birdies or best acquired. He finished one day better than Hatton in Scottsdale earlier this year, finishing fifth. He has two top 10 finishes at TPC Summerlin and has dominated Pebble Beach with seven top 7 finishes in his career.
Seamus Power (45-1)
The Force kicked off the season with tears but it eased when we got to the Florida Swing. He came to a nice finish last week though at Quail Hollow, finishing 18th. He finished 17th and 9th in Nelson both times he played at TPC Craig Ranch. He won the Bermuda Championships earlier in the season and also had top ten finishes at both the Detroit Golf Club and Pebble Beach. He tends to play the easier courses really well and over the last 36 on bentgrass he ranks 10th in the field for SG Putting.
Brandon Wu (65-1)
The form has been very good lately for the Stanford Cardinals. He just finished third three weeks ago in Mexico and was runner-up there last year. He was also runner-up at Pebble Beach again in February. Over the past 36 rounds, Wu has ranked 29th in the field for SG Off the Tee, 37th for SG Approach, 44th in Hole Proximity of 200 yards or more and 14th in Birdies or Better Gained. He also resides in the Dallas area, so familiarity with the route and terms is a bonus.
Eric Cole (80-1)
The world met Cole in March when he lost in a playoff to Chris Kirk at the Honda Classic. Prior to that, he finished 15th at Pebble Beach, and most recently finished 5th at the Mexican Open. He ranks 5th in the field for SG putts over the last 36 putts, 30th for SG Par 5s and 13th for SG Putting on bentgrass.
Nate Lashley (140-1)
Earlier this season, Lashley finished 20th at the Genesis Invitational and then followed that up with a third-place finish in Puerto Rico. He made three consecutive cuts and scored a top 30 last week at Wells Fargo – another solid performance against a high field – after being tied for the lead by 36 holes. He has finished 3rd at TPC Scottsdale, 11th in Mexico, 5th in Pebble Beach, and had his only win on tour at the Rocket Mortgage Classic at Detroit Golf Club. Over the last 36 rounds, Lashley has ranked 23rd in the field for SG Approach, 7th in SG Par 5s, and 1st and 5th, respectively, for close-up of the hole from 175-200 yards and 200 yards or more.
Full Championship Head-to-Head Matches (record 23-18-2 since the start of the year)
Tyrell Hatton (+215) over Scotty Scheffler
Matt Kuchar (-125) on Adam Scott
Brandon Wu (+110) on Aaron Ray
Eric Cole (+100) over Sam Stephens
Nate Lashley (-110) on Robbie Shelton
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