The NFL Draft of the Week has finally arrived. This means that we are starting to see sports betting expanding the list of suggested bets. Some offer a few hundred while others are basically risk-averse altogether.
As I explained last week, betting on the NFL Draft is like nothing else. Please check out this piece for more context on why this is different from other markets and why bookies are so wary.
The draft varies from year to year. This means that one must understand a particular draft in order to fully understand how it might unfold. One wise approach, especially this year, is to perform your own simulation multiple times—just like how you might prepare for a fantasy football draft. ESPN Analytics owns a NFL Draft mock simulator You can use it to play draft in different ways.
Try one with three quarterbacks within the first four picks, then maybe see how it plays out with running backs, starting with the second overall pick. This drill teaches you a lot about the floor and ceiling of a particular player, which in turn helps you hinder the brace for his position above/under the draft. It will also help you hinder indexes and other props. Essentially, each team has its own draft board, and if you can handle these details as effectively as possible, you can anticipate turning points. This week’s draft seems to start with the second overall — except for Tuesday’s wild odds move to pick the best — but it could take a few wild turns right after that. Just like in life, it is always wiser to anticipate than to react.
Below are my favorite plays. One thing to keep in mind is that while I hope to win every bet, it is more about building the optimal portfolio. This includes hoarding value but also trying to build favorable positions and understanding how a draft can go in several different directions, depending on where a few key people land.
Favorite plays
Devon Witherspoon over 6.5 (-125)
Devon Witherspoon NFL Profile
Check out the highlights from Illinois corner Devon Witherspoon.
The sixth pick looks like his roof, when you count the quarterbacks and linebackers. This is assuming it is the first corner formulated. Plus, this DB class is deep, which makes Witherspoon less desirable. We can see the final starting corners drafted in the third round. I fully understand that Witherspoon is the perfect choice for the Lions in the sixth but this exercise is about building a combination of scenarios and this bet has more ways to win than lose. Plus, his fitness can lead to injuries, and few defensemen have been rewarded for picking a top six player over the past decade, so this position is just as risky as that.
Trenton Simpson First LB (+300) (DraftKings)
This index highlights the art of the blind. Some situations lack importance so we didn’t get to see the first full-back until the second round. As the draft evolved, it became more and more unpredictable. So, I love getting the value of this Clemson player because he’s so unique in that he’s a safer player and the team might envision a hybrid role. I would also throw a little bit on the +380 he’s a first player.
Dalton Kincaid First TE (+150)
Dalton Kincaid NFL profile
Check out the best career highlights from University of Utah TE Dalton Kincaid.
He was cleared of a back injury but chose not to work out for the teams prior to the draft. It shouldn’t be a problem. Additionally, this property was -220 a few weeks ago, and sometimes the steam draft can be random. Personally, I doubt Teams will pass it on. It’s just private.
Kincaid Under 23.5 (+175)
While the tight end is a deep position, I think teams will be looking to disrupt someone with Travis Kelsey clone potential. He was ridiculed as were the Packers, who were now in 13th place. At +175, this is quite valuable. Something to keep in mind is that the back half of the draft is much more unpredictable than the first half. Thus, picking up the extra cash and looking to special talents makes a lot of sense.
1.5+ running backs in the first round (-175)
The juice is fairly high but I’m just relying on the Analysts Project. Specifically, on Monday, Todd McChee said it’s a virtual guarantee that we’ll see Alabama Jahmir Gibbs On the first day, as many teams love his pass-catching ability. Pair it with Til Robinson And you have value. Yes, the -175 moneyline can have value but I’d only risk 1 unit on this.
Steve Avila First-round draft pick (+170)
McShay has been hitting the table for this TCU guard who didn’t allow a single sack more than 540 snaps last season. He will play guard but is widely considered to be as versatile as anyone else. +170 is 37% and I think his chances of sneaking into the first round are higher than that.
Will Anderson Jr. for second overall selection (+300)
Plays That Will Scare NFL QBs Will Anderson Jr.
Take a look at LB Will Anderson Jr.’s highlights. During his career at Alabama prior to the NFL Draft.
I’d only bet this one at +300 or better. It was becoming more and more likely that the Texans would choose defense, largely because they could not find a suitable trade offer. New coach Demico Ryans has a defensive background and also played for Alabama under Nick Saban. It makes a lot of sense for him to take on Anderson, given the recent injury news with Texas Tech Terry Wilson.
Quentin Johnson Second WR (+500)
He was an absolute star in the college football game however costume flowers And Jordan Addison She received participation and sat higher in most of the following mock drafts Jackson Smith Njegba. However, Flowers and Addison are both smaller in size and we may see a team that just prefers the big poles.
Remember, it’s hard to predict the back end of the first round. At this price, it’s worth playing.
Giants draw TE with the first pick (20-1)
New York just traded for Darren Waller but that doesn’t stop them from looking for a player to surround QB Daniel Jones. The Giants could easily catch a tight end at Notre Dame Michael Meyer Or Sam Laporta at Iowa. They might even substitute Kincaid.